Mining precise cause and effect rules in large time series data of socio-economic indicators

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Table 10 Prediction accuracy of proposed, statistical and non-statistical methods on different scales

Accuracy parameters	Proposed method	Li et al. (2013)	Jin et al. (2012)	Silverstein et al. (2000)	Granger causality	Bayesian network
WBD-10, Rules: 50, CR:16, NCR: 34
Sensitivity	0.94	0.81	0.75	0.69	0.69	0.75
Specificity	0.91	0.82	0.74	0.65	0.68	0.79
Precision	0.83	0.68	0.57	0.48	0.50	0.63
F-Score	0.88	0.74	0.65	0.56	0.58	0.69
Accuracy	0.92	0.82	0.74	0.66	0.68	0.78
Misclassification rate	0.08	0.18	0.26	0.34	0.32	0.22
WBD-20, Rules: 100, CR:38, NCR: 62
Sensitivity	0.92	0.84	0.74	0.68	0.66	0.76
Specificity	0.90	0.82	0.74	0.66	0.68	0.77
Precision	0.85	0.74	0.64	0.55	0.56	0.67
F-Score	0.89	0.79	0.68	0.61	0.60	0.72
Accuracy	0.91	0.83	0.74	0.67	0.67	0.77
Misclassification rate	0.09	0.17	0.26	0.33	0.33	0.23
WBD-30, Rules: 150, CR: 65, NCR: 85
Sensitivity	0.91	0.80	0.72	0.63	0.65	0.77
Specificity	0.88	0.81	0.73	0.65	0.66	0.78
Precision	0.86	0.76	0.67	0.58	0.59	0.72
F-Score	0.88	0.78	0.70	0.60	0.62	0.75
Accuracy	0.89	0.81	0.73	0.64	0.65	0.77
Misclassification rate	0.11	0.19	0.27	0.36	0.35	0.23
WBD-40, Rules: 200, CR: 88, NCR: 112
Sensitivity	0.91	0.80	0.68	0.60	0.59	0.70
Specificity	0.89	0.81	0.71	0.63	0.61	0.72
Precision	0.87	0.77	0.65	0.56	0.55	0.65
F-Score	0.89	0.78	0.67	0.58	0.57	0.68
Accuracy	0.90	0.81	0.70	0.62	0.60	0.72
Misclassification rate	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.39	0.40	0.32
WBD-50, Rules: 250, CR: 112, NCR: 138
Sensitivity	0.90	0.79	0.65	0.60	0.57	0.67
Specificity	0.88	0.79	0.67	0.61	0.59	0.68
Precision	0.90	0.75	0.62	0.55	0.53	0.63
F-Score	0.90	0.77	0.63	0.58	0.55	0.65
Accuracy	0.89	0.79	0.66	0.60	0.58	0.68
Misclassification rate	0.09	0.21	0.34	0.40	0.42	0.32