Table 1 Scenarios used in the AR5 IPCC projection (adapted from Moss et al. 2010)

RCP85

Rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W m⁻² (~1370 ppm CO₂ eq) by 2100

Extreme

RCP60

Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 6 W m⁻² (~850 ppm CO₂ eq) at stabilization after 2100

High (comparable to A2)

RCP45

Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 4.5 W m⁻² (~650 ppm CO₂ eq) at stabilization after 2100

Medium (comparable to B2)

RCP26

Peak in radiative forcing at ~3 W m⁻² (~490 ppm CO₂ eq) before 2100 and then decline (the selected pathway declines to 2.6 W m⁻² by 2100)

Low