Predicting the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events within 30 days of a vascular surgery: an empirical comparison of the minimum p value method and ROC curve approach using individual patient data meta-analysis

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Table 5 Prediction models for all-cause mortality, cardiac death, and non-fatal myocardial infarction

Models and predictors	OR (95 % CI)	p	AUC
Outcome = all-cause mortality
MPM threshold
BNP ≥ 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP ≥ 241.7 pg/ml;	6.7 (2.76, 16.10)	<0.001	0.714
Ref = BNP < 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP < 241.7 pg/ml	6.7 (2.76, 16.10)	<0.001	0.714
Surgery type
Aortoiliac; Ref = infrainguinal surgery	2.8 (1.16,6.79)	0.022
Outcome = cardiac death
MPM threshold
BNP ≥ 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP ≥ 241.7 pg/ml;	9.2 (3.10, 27.37)	<0.001	0.750
Ref = BNP < 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP < 241.7 pg/ml	9.2 (3.10, 27.37)	<0.001	0.750
Surgery type
Aortoiliac; Ref = infrainguinal surgery	2.6 (0.91,7.64)	0.075
Outcome = nonfatal MI
MPM threshold
BNP > 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP > 241.7 pg/ml;	8.7 (4.60, 16.33)	<0.001	0.787
Ref = BNP < 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP < 241.7 pg/ml	8.7 (4.60, 16.33)	<0.001	0.787
Surgery type
Aortoiliac; Ref = infrainguinal surgery	2.1 (1.06,4.17)	0.034

Three models for each secondary outcome are presented. MPM threshold is an indicator variable of BNP and NTproBNP optimal thresholds determined by the minimum p value method
Ref reference level, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, AUC area under the ROC curve