Predicting the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events within 30 days of a vascular surgery: an empirical comparison of the minimum p value method and ROC curve approach using individual patient data meta-analysis

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Table 3 Determining a prediction model for 30-day MACE

Models and predictors	OR (95 % CI)	p	AUC
Development model
MPM threshold
BNP ≥ 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP ≥ 241.7 pg/ml;	8.5 (5.03, 14.41)	<0.001	0.777
Ref = BNP < 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP < 241.7 pg/ml	8.5 (5.03, 14.41)	<0.001	0.777
Surgery type
Aortoiliac; Ref = infrainguinal surgery	2.5 (1.40, 4.60)	0.002
Diabetes
Yes; Ref = No	2.1 (1.15, 3.71)	0.015
Internal validation
MPM threshold
BNP ≥ 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP ≥ 241.7 pg/ml;	8.6 (4.95, 14.65)	<0.001	0.793
Ref = BNP < 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP < 241.7 pg/ml	8.6 (4.95, 14.65)	<0.001	0.793
Surgery type
Aortoiliac; Ref = infrainguinal surgery	2.6 (1.37, 4.68)	0.004
Diabetes
Yes; Ref = No	2.1 (1.11, 3.84)	0.023
Sensitivity analysis
Mixed effects logistic regression model
MPM threshold
BNP ≥ 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP ≥ 241.7 pg/ml;	10 (5.59, 18.06)	<0.001	0.776
Ref = BNP < 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP < 241.7 pg/ml	10 (5.59, 18.06)	<0.001	0.776
Surgery type
Aortoiliac; Ref = infrainguinal surgery	2.8 (1.51, 5.31)	0.001
Diabetes
Yes; Ref = No	1.6 (0.83, 2.96)	0.17
Generalized estimating equation
MPM threshold
BNP ≥ 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP ≥ 241.7 pg/ml;	9.4 (3.81, 23.33)	<0.001	N/A
Ref = BNP < 115.57 pg/ml or NTproBNP < 241.7 pg/ml	9.4 (3.81, 23.33)	<0.001	N/A
Surgery type
Aortoiliac; Ref = infrainguinal surgery	2.7 (1.27, 5.73)	0.01
Diabetes
Yes; Ref = No	1.8 (0.95, 3.46)	0.072

ROC threshold is an indicator variable of BNP and NTproBNP thresholds determined by the ROC curve method (Allison 2012); MPM threshold is an indicator variable of BNP and NTproBNP thresholds determined by the minimum p value method
Ref reference level, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, AUC area under the ROC curve