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Table 4 Results of the mixed-effects regression analyses for change in running speed in male half-marathoners across years

From: Male and female Ethiopian and Kenyan runners are the fastest and the youngest in both half and full marathon

Parameter

Estimate

SE

DF

T

p value

95 % CI

Upper

Lower

Ethiopia

       

 Constant term

98.099117

174.871376

30.494

0.561

0.579

−258.793601

454.991835

 Year

−0.043552

0.087058

30.500

−0.500

0.620

−0.221226

0.134123

 Cage

−0.250494

0.185335

45.246

−1.352

0.183

−0.623723

0.122734

 Cage2

−0.012719

0.007260

42.721

−1.752

0.087

−0.027363

0.001925

Kenya

       

 Constant term

88.307393

103.114750

61.076

0.856

0.395

−117.878135

294.492921

 Year

−0.037470

0.051349

61.091

−0.730

0.468

−0.140145

0.065205

 Cage

−0.066120

0.029956

133.511

−2.207

0.029

−0.125371

−0.006870

 Cage2

−0.002035

0.001386

133.757

−1.469

0.144

−0.004776

0.000706

Austria

       

 Constant term

8.193904

15.718906

1374.455

0.521

0.602

−22.641739

39.029547

 Year

0.000216

0.007826

1374.306

0.028

0.978

−0.015136

0.015568

 Cage

−0.016008

0.004315

1443.906

−3.710

0.000

−0.024471

−0.007544

 Cage2

−0.000501

0.000294

1458.820

−1.702

0.089

−0.001078

7.633939E−5

Canada

       

 Constant term

−21.298964

52.088221

337.247

−0.409

0.683

−123.757696

81.159769

 Year

0.014351

0.025943

337.200

0.553

0.580

−0.036679

0.065382

 Cage

−0.024635

0.011096

359.294

−2.220

0.027

−0.046457

−0.002814

 Cage2

0.000544

0.000695

362.647

0.783

0.434

−0.000822

0.001910

Czech Republic

       

 Constant term

154.008680

81.928758

100.744

1.880

0.063

−8.520953

316.538313

 Year

−0.072109

0.040820

100.777

−1.767

0.080

−0.153086

0.008869

 Cage

−0.003265

0.013101

75.567

−0.249

0.804

−0.029361

0.022830

 Cage2

−0.002162

0.000996

78.010

−2.171

0.033

−0.004144

−0.000179

Denmark

       

 Constant term

73.075047

85.575129

152.801

0.854

0.394

−95.988101

242.138195

 Year

−0.032295

0.042595

152.782

−0.758

0.450

−0.116447

0.051857

 Cage

0.004069

0.013983

120.832

0.291

0.772

−0.023615

0.031752

 Cage2

−0.002067

0.000851

124.782

−2.429

0.017

−0.003752

−0.000383

Spain

       

 Constant term

73.070026

58.997907

419.804

1.239

0.216

−42.898085

189.038138

 Year

−0.031824

0.029368

419.811

−1.084

0.279

−0.089550

0.025902

 Cage

−0.015581

0.013136

435.510

−1.186

0.236

−0.041399

0.010238

 Cage2

0.001634

0.000911

471.708

1.793

0.074

−0.000156

0.003425

France

       

 Constant term

2.152551

8.424878

11,440.730

0.255

0.798

−14.361653

18.666754

 Year

0.003734

0.004195

11,440.223

0.890

0.373

−0.004488

0.011956

 Cage

−0.024520

0.002065

11,842.861

−11.874

0.000

−0.028568

−0.020472

 Cage2

−0.000555

0.000144

11,634.921

−3.864

0.000

−0.000837

−0.000274

Great Britain

 Constant term

37.386616

22.952563

1729.593

1.629

0.104

−7.631084

82.404316

 Year

−0.014237

0.011430

1729.576

−1.246

0.213

−0.036654

0.008181

 Cage

−0.007171

0.005013

1775.835

−1.430

0.153

−0.017003

0.002662

 Cage2

−0.000507

0.000363

1811.205

−1.399

0.162

−0.001218

0.000204

Germany

       

 Constant term

26.340398

7.339500

12,201.868

3.589

0.000

11.953816

40.726980

 Year

−0.008802

0.003654

12,201.252

−2.409

0.016

−0.015965

−0.001639

 Cage

−0.015672

0.001614

11,817.685

−9.708

0.000

−0.018836

−0.012508

 Cage2

−0.000337

0.000106

11,885.807

−3.164

0.002

−0.000545

−0.000128

Italy

       

 Constant term

32.563297

20.328196

2372.545

1.602

0.109

−7.299571

72.426164

 Year

−0.010999

0.010122

2372.366

−1.087

0.277

−0.030847

0.008850

 Cage

−0.045951

0.005681

2514.295

−8.089

0.000

−0.057090

−0.034812

 Cage2

−0.000765

0.000380

2470.087

−2.015

0.044

−0.001510

−2.039314E−5

Japan

       

 Constant term

14.867692

48.121533

316.697

0.309

0.758

−79.810599

109.545984

 Year

−.003770

0.023954

316.650

−.157

0.875

−.050900

0.043360

 Cage

−.058721

0.010081

397.745

−5.825

0.000

−.078540

−.038902

 Cage2

4.080624E−5

0.000449

341.270

0.091

0.928

−.000843

0.000924

Fürstentum Liechtenstein

 Constant term

36.488409

42.462409

604.502

0.859

0.391

−46.903349

119.880168

 Year

−0.012766

0.021142

604.548

−0.604

0.546

−0.054287

0.028756

 Cage

−0.001820

0.009507

565.166

−0.191

0.848

−0.020492

0.016853

 Cage2

−0.001896

0.000777

592.741

−2.438

0.015

−0.003422

−0.000369

Luxembourg

 Constant term

−15.253456

80.615224

92.293

−0.189

0.850

−175.355473

144.848561

 Year

0.011431

0.040137

92.287

0.285

0.776

−0.068280

0.091143

 Cage

−0.065466

0.021046

112.887

−3.111

0.002

−0.107162

−0.023770

 Cage2

0.002067

0.001460

76.329

1.415

0.161

−0.000842

0.004975

Netherlands

 Constant term

43.412228

54.590318

317.931

0.795

0.427

−63.991689

150.816144

 Year

−0.016855

0.027175

317.960

−0.620

0.536

−0.070321

0.036612

 Cage

−0.029740

0.011819

303.713

−2.516

0.012

−0.052998

−0.006482

 Cage2

−0.001104

0.000799

294.009

−1.382

0.168

−0.002675

0.000468

Norway

       

 Constant term

−108.473099

87.956547

66.260

−1.233

0.222

−284.071127

67.124929

 Year

0.058583

0.043794

66.285

1.338

0.186

−0.028848

0.146014

 Cage

0.003335

0.021397

98.282

0.156

0.876

−0.039125

0.045796

 Cage2

−0.001692

0.001159

78.629

−1.460

0.148

−0.004000

0.000615

Portugal

       

 Constant term

67.632099

92.672293

171.225

0.730

0.467

−115.295174

250.559373

 Year

−0.028137

0.046162

171.263

−0.610

0.543

−0.119256

0.062982

 Cage

0.009515

0.023055

186.876

0.413

0.680

−0.035968

0.054997

 Cage2

−0.001022

0.001966

185.843

−0.520

0.604

−0.004900

0.002855

Switzerland

 Constant term

8.817285

1.667403

223,427.050

5.288

0.000

5.549219

12.085351

 Year

0.000791

0.000830

223,414.735

0.953

0.340

−0.000836

0.002418

 Cage

−0.010964

0.000294

204,230.290

−37.270

0.000

−0.011540

−0.010387

 Cage2

−0.000368

2.032780E−5

202,092.789

−18.089

0.000

−0.000408

−0.000328

United States of America

 Constant term

54.392263

32.424867

708.442

1.677

0.094

−9.268067

118.052594

 Year

−0.023017

0.016143

708.387

−1.426

0.154

−0.054711

0.008677

 Cage

−0.009382

0.006245

705.174

−1.502

0.133

−0.021643

0.002878

 Cage2

−0.000283

0.000441

689.741

−0.641

0.521

−0.001149

0.000583

Australia

 Constant term

52.302602

107.606779

108.032

0.486

0.628

−160.991990

265.597194

 Year

−0.021678

0.053582

108.089

−0.405

0.687

−0.127885

0.084529

 Cage

−0.013969

0.030696

133.451

−0.455

0.650

−0.074683

0.046745

 Cage2

−0.000317

0.002070

136.856

−0.153

0.878

−0.004411

0.003776

Belgium

 Constant term

107.524420

49.224327

501.956

2.184

0.029

10.813323

204.235517

 Year

−0.049210

0.024501

501.911

−2.008

0.045

−0.097348

−0.001073

 Cage

−0.033350

0.009176

447.125

−3.635

0.000

−0.051383

−0.015317

 Cage2

−7.340408E−5

0.000666

417.563

−0.110

0.912

−0.001382

0.001235

Hungary

 Constant term

5.737883

94.942100

159.346

0.060

0.952

−181.769287

193.245052

 Year

0.002193

0.047257

159.320

0.046

0.963

−0.091137

0.095523

 Cage

−0.021118

0.020068

158.936

−1.052

0.294

−0.060752

0.018515

 Cage2

0.001436

0.001087

174.946

1.320

0.188

−0.000710

0.003582

Ireland

       

 Constant term

138.624168

77.025730

130.753

1.800

0.074

−13.753783

291.002120

 Year

−0.064935

0.038349

130.724

−1.693

0.093

−0.140799

0.010930

 Cage

0.012905

0.020461

147.172

0.631

0.529

−0.027530

0.053340

 Cage2

0.001772

0.001597

146.087

1.110

0.269

−0.001384

0.004928

Poland

       

 Constant term

86.086931

104.182157

192.160

0.826

0.410

−119.400506

291.574369

 Year

−0.038832

0.051868

192.148

−0.749

0.455

−0.141137

0.063472

 Cage

−0.092905

0.018121

167.220

−5.127

0.000

−0.128680

−0.057130

 Cage2

0.001517

0.001224

171.169

1.239

0.217

−0.000899

0.003933

Russia

       

 Constant term

211.097501

112.913539

96.255

1.870

0.065

−13.026515

435.221517

 Year

−0.100778

0.056233

96.273

−1.792

0.076

−0.212397

0.010840

 Cage

−0.066677

0.024282

81.019

−2.746

0.007

−0.114991

−0.018364

 Cage2

−0.004585

0.001957

62.648

−2.343

0.022

−0.008497

−0.000674

Sweden

       

 Constant term

23.098100

70.780786

194.032

0.326

0.745

−116.500399

162.696600

 Year

−0.007622

0.035234

193.992

−0.216

0.829

−0.077113

0.061870

 Cage

−0.041879

0.012513

177.901

−3.347

0.001

−0.066573

−0.017186

 Cage2

−0.000214

0.000893

193.338

−0.239

0.811

−0.001976

0.001548

Finland

       

 Constant term

8.266275

52.736089

163.256

0.157

0.876

−95.866485

112.399036

 Year

−0.000566

0.026249

163.232

−0.022

0.983

−0.052397

0.051266

 Cage

−0.041553

0.011615

170.064

−3.578

0.000

−0.064481

−0.018625

 Cage2

0.000222

0.000718

147.558

0.309

0.758

−0.001197

0.001640

Greece

       

 Constant term

−61.629272

138.778354

63.917

−0.444

0.658

−338.877861

215.619317

 Year

0.034774

0.069126

63.920

0.503

0.617

−0.103324

0.172871

 Cage

−0.045672

0.029991

67.495

−1.523

0.132

−0.105525

0.014181

 Cage2

0.001362

0.002210

66.813

0.616

0.540

−0.003050

0.005774

Republic of South Africa

 Constant term

97.835143

206.579371

37.822

0.474

0.639

−320.427710

516.097997

 Year

−0.045155

0.102815

37.832

−0.439

0.663

−0.253323

0.163012

 Cage

−0.114764

0.045331

42.716

−2.532

0.015

−0.206201

−0.023327

 Cage2

0.002014

0.003936

43.893

0.512

0.611

−0.005919

0.009947

Brazil

       

 Constant term

69.573202

122.101031

76.685

0.570

0.570

−173.576935

312.723340

 Year

−0.030992

0.060774

76.687

−0.510

0.612

−0.152015

0.090032

 Cage

−0.005665

0.035651

84.804

−0.159

0.874

−0.076551

0.065221

 Cage2

0.000800

0.002584

85.927

0.310

0.758

−0.004337

0.005937

Mexico

       

 Constant term

41.878671

159.784287

57.808

0.262

0.794

−277.986904

361.744245

 Year

−0.016374

0.079565

57.848

−0.206

0.838

−0.175650

0.142902

 Cage

0.004652

0.037631

61.634

0.124

0.902

−0.070580

0.079884

 Cage2

0.000324

0.002948

56.403

0.110

0.913

−0.005580

0.006229

Argentina

 Constant term

−280.869673

275.764919

14.061

−1.019

0.326

−872.087719

310.348372

 Year

0.143819

0.137206

14.060

1.048

0.312

−0.150341

0.437979

 Cage

−0.105665

0.095288

20.398

−1.109

0.280

−0.304184

0.092855

 Cage2

−0.008941

0.013370

20.476

−0.669

0.511

−0.036788

0.018907

India

       

 Constant term

184.538334

187.481998

40.972

0.984

0.331

−194.097033

563.173702

 Year

−0.087437

0.093418

40.964

−0.936

0.355

−0.276104

0.101229

 Cage

−0.043125

0.036785

44.595

−1.172

0.247

−0.117232

0.030982

 Cage2

−0.000763

0.003355

41.543

−0.228

0.821

−0.007536

0.006009

Israel

       

 Constant term

23.126668

168.388173

45.039

0.137

0.891

−316.016346

362.269682

 Year

−0.006935

0.083826

45.030

−0.083

0.934

−0.175766

0.161896

 Cage

−0.016089

0.022043

28.717

−0.730

0.471

−0.061192

0.029014

 Cage2

−0.000399

0.001451

29.170

−0.275

0.785

−0.003365

0.002567

Slovenia

       

 Constant term

449.153792

328.346727

19.574

1.368

0.187

−236.722979

1135.030562

 Year

−0.219405

0.163419

19.579

−1.343

0.195

−0.560762

0.121952

 Cage

−0.078618

0.063055

11.412

−1.247

0.237

−0.216792

0.059557

 Cage2

0.003187

0.005660

11.316

0.563

0.584

−0.009229

0.015603

  1. Data for Non-African runners are sorted in order of the number of finishers of each country
  2. Cage centered age, Cage 2 centered age squared