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Table 4 Results of the mixed-effects regression analyses for change in running speed in male half-marathoners across years

From: Male and female Ethiopian and Kenyan runners are the fastest and the youngest in both half and full marathon

Parameter Estimate SE DF T p value 95 % CI
Upper Lower
Ethiopia        
 Constant term 98.099117 174.871376 30.494 0.561 0.579 −258.793601 454.991835
 Year −0.043552 0.087058 30.500 −0.500 0.620 −0.221226 0.134123
 Cage −0.250494 0.185335 45.246 −1.352 0.183 −0.623723 0.122734
 Cage2 −0.012719 0.007260 42.721 −1.752 0.087 −0.027363 0.001925
Kenya        
 Constant term 88.307393 103.114750 61.076 0.856 0.395 −117.878135 294.492921
 Year −0.037470 0.051349 61.091 −0.730 0.468 −0.140145 0.065205
 Cage −0.066120 0.029956 133.511 −2.207 0.029 −0.125371 −0.006870
 Cage2 −0.002035 0.001386 133.757 −1.469 0.144 −0.004776 0.000706
Austria        
 Constant term 8.193904 15.718906 1374.455 0.521 0.602 −22.641739 39.029547
 Year 0.000216 0.007826 1374.306 0.028 0.978 −0.015136 0.015568
 Cage −0.016008 0.004315 1443.906 −3.710 0.000 −0.024471 −0.007544
 Cage2 −0.000501 0.000294 1458.820 −1.702 0.089 −0.001078 7.633939E−5
Canada        
 Constant term −21.298964 52.088221 337.247 −0.409 0.683 −123.757696 81.159769
 Year 0.014351 0.025943 337.200 0.553 0.580 −0.036679 0.065382
 Cage −0.024635 0.011096 359.294 −2.220 0.027 −0.046457 −0.002814
 Cage2 0.000544 0.000695 362.647 0.783 0.434 −0.000822 0.001910
Czech Republic        
 Constant term 154.008680 81.928758 100.744 1.880 0.063 −8.520953 316.538313
 Year −0.072109 0.040820 100.777 −1.767 0.080 −0.153086 0.008869
 Cage −0.003265 0.013101 75.567 −0.249 0.804 −0.029361 0.022830
 Cage2 −0.002162 0.000996 78.010 −2.171 0.033 −0.004144 −0.000179
Denmark        
 Constant term 73.075047 85.575129 152.801 0.854 0.394 −95.988101 242.138195
 Year −0.032295 0.042595 152.782 −0.758 0.450 −0.116447 0.051857
 Cage 0.004069 0.013983 120.832 0.291 0.772 −0.023615 0.031752
 Cage2 −0.002067 0.000851 124.782 −2.429 0.017 −0.003752 −0.000383
Spain        
 Constant term 73.070026 58.997907 419.804 1.239 0.216 −42.898085 189.038138
 Year −0.031824 0.029368 419.811 −1.084 0.279 −0.089550 0.025902
 Cage −0.015581 0.013136 435.510 −1.186 0.236 −0.041399 0.010238
 Cage2 0.001634 0.000911 471.708 1.793 0.074 −0.000156 0.003425
France        
 Constant term 2.152551 8.424878 11,440.730 0.255 0.798 −14.361653 18.666754
 Year 0.003734 0.004195 11,440.223 0.890 0.373 −0.004488 0.011956
 Cage −0.024520 0.002065 11,842.861 −11.874 0.000 −0.028568 −0.020472
 Cage2 −0.000555 0.000144 11,634.921 −3.864 0.000 −0.000837 −0.000274
Great Britain
 Constant term 37.386616 22.952563 1729.593 1.629 0.104 −7.631084 82.404316
 Year −0.014237 0.011430 1729.576 −1.246 0.213 −0.036654 0.008181
 Cage −0.007171 0.005013 1775.835 −1.430 0.153 −0.017003 0.002662
 Cage2 −0.000507 0.000363 1811.205 −1.399 0.162 −0.001218 0.000204
Germany        
 Constant term 26.340398 7.339500 12,201.868 3.589 0.000 11.953816 40.726980
 Year −0.008802 0.003654 12,201.252 −2.409 0.016 −0.015965 −0.001639
 Cage −0.015672 0.001614 11,817.685 −9.708 0.000 −0.018836 −0.012508
 Cage2 −0.000337 0.000106 11,885.807 −3.164 0.002 −0.000545 −0.000128
Italy        
 Constant term 32.563297 20.328196 2372.545 1.602 0.109 −7.299571 72.426164
 Year −0.010999 0.010122 2372.366 −1.087 0.277 −0.030847 0.008850
 Cage −0.045951 0.005681 2514.295 −8.089 0.000 −0.057090 −0.034812
 Cage2 −0.000765 0.000380 2470.087 −2.015 0.044 −0.001510 −2.039314E−5
Japan        
 Constant term 14.867692 48.121533 316.697 0.309 0.758 −79.810599 109.545984
 Year −.003770 0.023954 316.650 −.157 0.875 −.050900 0.043360
 Cage −.058721 0.010081 397.745 −5.825 0.000 −.078540 −.038902
 Cage2 4.080624E−5 0.000449 341.270 0.091 0.928 −.000843 0.000924
Fürstentum Liechtenstein
 Constant term 36.488409 42.462409 604.502 0.859 0.391 −46.903349 119.880168
 Year −0.012766 0.021142 604.548 −0.604 0.546 −0.054287 0.028756
 Cage −0.001820 0.009507 565.166 −0.191 0.848 −0.020492 0.016853
 Cage2 −0.001896 0.000777 592.741 −2.438 0.015 −0.003422 −0.000369
Luxembourg
 Constant term −15.253456 80.615224 92.293 −0.189 0.850 −175.355473 144.848561
 Year 0.011431 0.040137 92.287 0.285 0.776 −0.068280 0.091143
 Cage −0.065466 0.021046 112.887 −3.111 0.002 −0.107162 −0.023770
 Cage2 0.002067 0.001460 76.329 1.415 0.161 −0.000842 0.004975
Netherlands
 Constant term 43.412228 54.590318 317.931 0.795 0.427 −63.991689 150.816144
 Year −0.016855 0.027175 317.960 −0.620 0.536 −0.070321 0.036612
 Cage −0.029740 0.011819 303.713 −2.516 0.012 −0.052998 −0.006482
 Cage2 −0.001104 0.000799 294.009 −1.382 0.168 −0.002675 0.000468
Norway        
 Constant term −108.473099 87.956547 66.260 −1.233 0.222 −284.071127 67.124929
 Year 0.058583 0.043794 66.285 1.338 0.186 −0.028848 0.146014
 Cage 0.003335 0.021397 98.282 0.156 0.876 −0.039125 0.045796
 Cage2 −0.001692 0.001159 78.629 −1.460 0.148 −0.004000 0.000615
Portugal        
 Constant term 67.632099 92.672293 171.225 0.730 0.467 −115.295174 250.559373
 Year −0.028137 0.046162 171.263 −0.610 0.543 −0.119256 0.062982
 Cage 0.009515 0.023055 186.876 0.413 0.680 −0.035968 0.054997
 Cage2 −0.001022 0.001966 185.843 −0.520 0.604 −0.004900 0.002855
Switzerland
 Constant term 8.817285 1.667403 223,427.050 5.288 0.000 5.549219 12.085351
 Year 0.000791 0.000830 223,414.735 0.953 0.340 −0.000836 0.002418
 Cage −0.010964 0.000294 204,230.290 −37.270 0.000 −0.011540 −0.010387
 Cage2 −0.000368 2.032780E−5 202,092.789 −18.089 0.000 −0.000408 −0.000328
United States of America
 Constant term 54.392263 32.424867 708.442 1.677 0.094 −9.268067 118.052594
 Year −0.023017 0.016143 708.387 −1.426 0.154 −0.054711 0.008677
 Cage −0.009382 0.006245 705.174 −1.502 0.133 −0.021643 0.002878
 Cage2 −0.000283 0.000441 689.741 −0.641 0.521 −0.001149 0.000583
Australia
 Constant term 52.302602 107.606779 108.032 0.486 0.628 −160.991990 265.597194
 Year −0.021678 0.053582 108.089 −0.405 0.687 −0.127885 0.084529
 Cage −0.013969 0.030696 133.451 −0.455 0.650 −0.074683 0.046745
 Cage2 −0.000317 0.002070 136.856 −0.153 0.878 −0.004411 0.003776
Belgium
 Constant term 107.524420 49.224327 501.956 2.184 0.029 10.813323 204.235517
 Year −0.049210 0.024501 501.911 −2.008 0.045 −0.097348 −0.001073
 Cage −0.033350 0.009176 447.125 −3.635 0.000 −0.051383 −0.015317
 Cage2 −7.340408E−5 0.000666 417.563 −0.110 0.912 −0.001382 0.001235
Hungary
 Constant term 5.737883 94.942100 159.346 0.060 0.952 −181.769287 193.245052
 Year 0.002193 0.047257 159.320 0.046 0.963 −0.091137 0.095523
 Cage −0.021118 0.020068 158.936 −1.052 0.294 −0.060752 0.018515
 Cage2 0.001436 0.001087 174.946 1.320 0.188 −0.000710 0.003582
Ireland        
 Constant term 138.624168 77.025730 130.753 1.800 0.074 −13.753783 291.002120
 Year −0.064935 0.038349 130.724 −1.693 0.093 −0.140799 0.010930
 Cage 0.012905 0.020461 147.172 0.631 0.529 −0.027530 0.053340
 Cage2 0.001772 0.001597 146.087 1.110 0.269 −0.001384 0.004928
Poland        
 Constant term 86.086931 104.182157 192.160 0.826 0.410 −119.400506 291.574369
 Year −0.038832 0.051868 192.148 −0.749 0.455 −0.141137 0.063472
 Cage −0.092905 0.018121 167.220 −5.127 0.000 −0.128680 −0.057130
 Cage2 0.001517 0.001224 171.169 1.239 0.217 −0.000899 0.003933
Russia        
 Constant term 211.097501 112.913539 96.255 1.870 0.065 −13.026515 435.221517
 Year −0.100778 0.056233 96.273 −1.792 0.076 −0.212397 0.010840
 Cage −0.066677 0.024282 81.019 −2.746 0.007 −0.114991 −0.018364
 Cage2 −0.004585 0.001957 62.648 −2.343 0.022 −0.008497 −0.000674
Sweden        
 Constant term 23.098100 70.780786 194.032 0.326 0.745 −116.500399 162.696600
 Year −0.007622 0.035234 193.992 −0.216 0.829 −0.077113 0.061870
 Cage −0.041879 0.012513 177.901 −3.347 0.001 −0.066573 −0.017186
 Cage2 −0.000214 0.000893 193.338 −0.239 0.811 −0.001976 0.001548
Finland        
 Constant term 8.266275 52.736089 163.256 0.157 0.876 −95.866485 112.399036
 Year −0.000566 0.026249 163.232 −0.022 0.983 −0.052397 0.051266
 Cage −0.041553 0.011615 170.064 −3.578 0.000 −0.064481 −0.018625
 Cage2 0.000222 0.000718 147.558 0.309 0.758 −0.001197 0.001640
Greece        
 Constant term −61.629272 138.778354 63.917 −0.444 0.658 −338.877861 215.619317
 Year 0.034774 0.069126 63.920 0.503 0.617 −0.103324 0.172871
 Cage −0.045672 0.029991 67.495 −1.523 0.132 −0.105525 0.014181
 Cage2 0.001362 0.002210 66.813 0.616 0.540 −0.003050 0.005774
Republic of South Africa
 Constant term 97.835143 206.579371 37.822 0.474 0.639 −320.427710 516.097997
 Year −0.045155 0.102815 37.832 −0.439 0.663 −0.253323 0.163012
 Cage −0.114764 0.045331 42.716 −2.532 0.015 −0.206201 −0.023327
 Cage2 0.002014 0.003936 43.893 0.512 0.611 −0.005919 0.009947
Brazil        
 Constant term 69.573202 122.101031 76.685 0.570 0.570 −173.576935 312.723340
 Year −0.030992 0.060774 76.687 −0.510 0.612 −0.152015 0.090032
 Cage −0.005665 0.035651 84.804 −0.159 0.874 −0.076551 0.065221
 Cage2 0.000800 0.002584 85.927 0.310 0.758 −0.004337 0.005937
Mexico        
 Constant term 41.878671 159.784287 57.808 0.262 0.794 −277.986904 361.744245
 Year −0.016374 0.079565 57.848 −0.206 0.838 −0.175650 0.142902
 Cage 0.004652 0.037631 61.634 0.124 0.902 −0.070580 0.079884
 Cage2 0.000324 0.002948 56.403 0.110 0.913 −0.005580 0.006229
Argentina
 Constant term −280.869673 275.764919 14.061 −1.019 0.326 −872.087719 310.348372
 Year 0.143819 0.137206 14.060 1.048 0.312 −0.150341 0.437979
 Cage −0.105665 0.095288 20.398 −1.109 0.280 −0.304184 0.092855
 Cage2 −0.008941 0.013370 20.476 −0.669 0.511 −0.036788 0.018907
India        
 Constant term 184.538334 187.481998 40.972 0.984 0.331 −194.097033 563.173702
 Year −0.087437 0.093418 40.964 −0.936 0.355 −0.276104 0.101229
 Cage −0.043125 0.036785 44.595 −1.172 0.247 −0.117232 0.030982
 Cage2 −0.000763 0.003355 41.543 −0.228 0.821 −0.007536 0.006009
Israel        
 Constant term 23.126668 168.388173 45.039 0.137 0.891 −316.016346 362.269682
 Year −0.006935 0.083826 45.030 −0.083 0.934 −0.175766 0.161896
 Cage −0.016089 0.022043 28.717 −0.730 0.471 −0.061192 0.029014
 Cage2 −0.000399 0.001451 29.170 −0.275 0.785 −0.003365 0.002567
Slovenia        
 Constant term 449.153792 328.346727 19.574 1.368 0.187 −236.722979 1135.030562
 Year −0.219405 0.163419 19.579 −1.343 0.195 −0.560762 0.121952
 Cage −0.078618 0.063055 11.412 −1.247 0.237 −0.216792 0.059557
 Cage2 0.003187 0.005660 11.316 0.563 0.584 −0.009229 0.015603
  1. Data for Non-African runners are sorted in order of the number of finishers of each country
  2. Cage centered age, Cage 2 centered age squared
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