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Table 5 Observed and fitted Female suicide data by model St+1 = 1.057 × 0.0016–2.2 × 0.00162 + 22.8 × 0.00163

From: Social complexity, modernity and suicide: an assessment of Durkheim’s suicide from the perspective of a non-linear analysis of complex social systems

a

b(1)

b(2)

c

d

e

f

g (1)

g (2)

h

Years

F

Observed suicide growth rates st

F

Observed St

zF

obs.St

(b and f)

F

Predicted

St

zF predic St

F

Fitted

Residues b(2) − f from 1875

% Residues (f/b(2)) × 100

F Fitted derivative or suicide growth rates St+1 − St

R2 = 0.996

1873

1.39

        

1874

1.87

3.26

       

1875

1.28

4.54

−1.55

0.001600

−1.46

17.37

−12.83

−282.62

 

1876

1.24

5.78

−1.54

0.001686

−1.45

18.22

−12.44

−215.16

0.85

1877

1.62

7.40

−1.53

0.001776

−1.45

19.10

−11.70

−158.16

0.88

1878

1.71

9.11

−1.52

0.001870

−1.44

20.03

−10.92

−119.92

0.93

1879

1.60

10.71

−1.51

0.001969

−1.43

21.01

−10.30

−96.19

0.98

1880

1.82

12.53

−1.49

0.002073

−1.42

22.04

−9.51

−75.88

1.03

1881

1.94

14.47

−1.48

0.002182

−1.42

23.11

−8.64

−59.72

1.07

1882

1.70

16.17

−1.47

0.002296

−1.41

24.24

−8.07

−49.89

1.13

1883

2.01

18.18

−1.45

0.002416

−1.40

25.42

−7.24

−39.81

1.18

1884

1.76

19.94

−1.44

0.002541

−1.39

26.65

−6.71

−33.66

1.23

1885

1.90

21.84

−1.42

0.002672

−1.38

27.94

−6.10

−27.95

1.29

1886

1.48

23.32

−1.41

0.002809

−1.37

29.30

−5.98

−25.63

1.36

1887

1.80

25.12

−1.40

0.002952

−1.36

30.71

−5.59

−22.25

1.41

1888

2.08

27.20

−1.38

0.003102

−1.35

32.19

−4.99

−18.33

1.48

1889

2.12

29.32

−1.37

0.003258

−1.34

33.73

−4.41

−15.04

1.54

1890

1.96

31.28

−1.35

0.003421

−1.32

35.34

−4.06

−12.98

1.61

1891

2.07

33.35

−1.34

0.003591

−1.31

37.02

−3.67

−11.00

1.68

1892

2.16

35.51

−1.32

0.003769

−1.30

38.77

−3.26

−9.17

1.75

1893

1.97

37.48

−1.31

0.003953

−1.29

40.59

−3.11

−8.30

1.82

1894

1.25

38.73

−1.30

0.004146

−1.27

42.49

−3.76

−9.71

1.90

1895

2.34

41.07

−1.28

0.004346

−1.26

44.46

−3.39

−8.26

1.97

1896

2.57

43.64

−1.26

0.004554

−1.24

46.52

−2.88

−6.59

2.06

1897

2.45

46.09

−1.24

0.004770

−1.23

48.65

−2.56

−5.55

2.13

1898

2.68

48.77

−1.22

0.004994

−1.21

50.86

−2.09

−4.29

2.21

1899

2.63

51.40

−1.20

0.005227

−1.19

53.16

−1.76

−3.42

2.30

1900

2.62

54.02

−1.18

0.005468

−1.17

55.54

−1.52

−2.81

2.38

1901

2.55

56.57

−1.17

0.005718

−1.16

58.00

−1.43

−2.53

2.46

1902

2.61

59.18

−1.15

0.005976

−1.14

60.55

−1.37

−2.31

2.55

1903

2.33

61.51

−1.13

0.006243

−1.12

63.18

−1.67

−2.72

2.63

1904

2.71

64.22

−1.11

0.006519

−1.10

65.90

−1.68

−2.62

2.72

1905

3.04

67.26

−1.09

0.006803

−1.08

68.71

−1.45

−2.15

2.81

1906

3.45

70.71

−1.06

0.007096

−1.05

71.60

−0.89

−1.26

2.89

1907

3.68

74.39

−1.03

0.007398

−1.03

74.58

−0.19

−0.25

2.98

1908

3.59

77.98

−1.01

0.007708

−1.01

77.64

0.34

0.44

3.06

1909

4.01

81.99

−0.98

0.008027

−0.99

80.79

1.20

1.47

3.15

1910

3.95

85.94

−0.95

0.008355

−0.96

84.02

1.92

2.23

3.23

1911

4.62

90.56

−0.91

0.008691

−0.94

87.34

3.22

3.56

3.32

1912

4.63

95.19

−0.88

0.009035

−0.91

90.73

4.46

4.68

3.39

1913

4.61

99.80

−0.84

0.009387

−0.89

94.21

5.59

5.60

3.48

1914

4.89

104.69

−0.81

0.009748

−0.86

97.76

6.93

6.62

3.55

1915

4.35

109.04

−0.77

0.010115

−0.83

101.39

7.65

7.02

3.63

1916

3.92

112.96

−0.74

0.010490

−0.80

105.09

7.87

6.97

3.70

1917

3.80

116.76

−0.72

0.010872

−0.78

108.86

7.90

6.77

3.77

1918

4.32

121.08

−0.68

0.011261

−0.75

112.70

8.38

6.92

3.84

1919

4.20

125.28

−0.65

0.011657

−0.72

116.60

8.68

6.93

3.90

1920

4.46

129.74

−0.62

0.012058

−0.69

120.56

9.18

7.08

3.96

1921

4.16

133.90

−0.59

0.012466

−0.66

124.58

9.32

6.96

4.02

1922

4.34

138.24

−0.56

0.012879

−0.63

128.65

9.59

6.93

4.07

1923

4.48

142.72

−0.52

0.013297

−0.60

132.78

9.94

6.97

4.13

1924

5.08

147.80

−0.48

0.013719

−0.57

136.95

10.85

7.34

4.17

1925

4.86

152.66

−0.45

0.014146

−0.53

141.16

11.50

7.53

4.21

1926

4.75

157.41

−0.41

0.014577

−0.50

145.41

12.00

7.63

4.25

1927

5.07

162.48

−0.37

0.015011

−0.47

149.69

12.79

7.87

4.28

1928

4.90

167.38

−0.34

0.015448

−0.44

154.00

13.38

7.99

4.31

1929

4.69

172.07

−0.30

0.015887

−0.41

158.34

13.73

7.98

4.34

1930

4.69

176.76

−0.27

0.016329

−0.37

162.70

14.06

7.96

4.36

1931

4.75

181.51

−0.23

0.016772

−0.34

167.07

14.44

7.96

4.37

1932

4.82

186.33

−0.20

0.017217

−0.31

171.46

14.87

7.98

4.39

1933

4.28

190.61

−0.16

0.017663

−0.28

175.86

14.75

7.74

4.40

1934

4.56

195.17

−0.13

0.018109

−0.24

180.26

14.91

7.64

4.40

1935

4.09

199.26

−0.10

0.018555

−0.21

184.66

14.60

7.33

4.40

1936

4.02

203.28

−0.07

0.019001

−0.18

189.06

14.22

7.00

4.40

1937

3.95

207.23

−0.04

0.019446

−0.14

193.45

13.78

6.65

4.39

1938

3.68

210.91

−0.01

0.019890

−0.11

197.83

13.08

6.20

4.38

1939

3.62

214.53

0.01

0.020333

−0.08

202.20

12.33

5.75

4.37

1940

3.11

217.64

0.04

0.020774

−0.05

206.55

11.09

5.09

4.35

1941

2.82

220.46

0.06

0.021213

−0.01

210.89

9.57

4.34

4.34

1942

2.77

223.23

0.08

0.021650

0.02

215.20

8.03

3.60

4.31

1943

2.43

225.66

0.10

0.022084

0.05

219.48

6.18

2.74

4.28

1944

2.06

227.72

0.11

0.022516

0.08

223.74

3.98

1.75

4.26

1945

2.69

230.41

0.13

0.022944

0.11

227.96

2.45

1.06

4.22

1946

2.97

233.38

0.15

0.023369

0.15

232.16

1.22

0.52

4.20

1947

3.03

236.41

0.18

0.023790

0.18

236.32

0.09

0.04

4.16

1948

3.38

239.79

0.20

0.024208

0.21

240.44

−0.65

−0.27

4.12

1949

3.62

243.41

0.23

0.024622

0.24

244.52

−1.11

−0.46

4.08

1950

3.58

246.99

0.26

0.025032

0.27

248.57

−1.58

−0.64

4.05

1951

3.45

250.44

0.28

0.025438

0.30

252.58

−2.14

−0.85

4.01

1952

3.51

253.95

0.31

0.025840

0.33

256.54

−2.59

−1.02

3.96

1953

3.88

257.83

0.34

0.026237

0.36

260.46

−2.63

−1.02

3.92

1954

3.55

261.38

0.36

0.026630

0.39

264.33

−2.95

−1.13

3.87

1955

3.70

265.08

0.39

0.027019

0.41

268.17

−3.09

−1.16

3.84

1956

3.58

268.66

0.42

0.027402

0.44

271.95

−3.29

−1.23

3.78

1957

3.67

272.33

0.44

0.027781

0.47

275.69

−3.36

−1.23

3.74

1958

3.55

275.88

0.47

0.028156

0.50

279.39

−3.51

−1.27

3.70

1959

3.61

279.49

0.50

0.028526

0.53

283.04

−3.55

−1.27

3.65

1960

3.56

283.05

0.52

0.028891

0.55

286.64

−3.59

−1.27

3.60

1961

3.27

286.32

0.55

0.029251

0.58

290.19

−3.87

−1.35

3.55

1962

2.84

289.16

0.57

0.029606

0.60

293.70

−4.54

−1.57

3.51

1963

2.90

292.06

0.59

0.029957

0.63

297.16

−5.10

−1.75

3.46

1964

3.05

295.11

0.61

0.030304

0.66

300.58

−5.47

−1.85

3.42

1965

2.99

298.10

0.64

0.030645

0.68

303.95

−5.85

−1.96

3.37

1966

2.77

300.87

0.66

0.030982

0.71

307.27

−6.40

−2.13

3.32

1967

3.08

303.95

0.68

0.031314

0.73

310.55

−6.60

−2.17

3.28

1968

2.92

306.87

0.70

0.031642

0.75

313.78

−6.91

−2.25

3.23

1969

2.82

309.69

0.72

0.031965

0.78

316.97

−7.28

−2.35

3.19

1970

2.70

312.39

0.74

0.032284

0.80

320.12

−7.73

−2.47

3.15

1971

2.71

315.10

0.76

0.032598

0.83

323.22

−8.12

−2.58

3.10

1972

2.75

317.85

0.78

0.032908

0.85

326.28

−8.43

−2.65

3.06

1973

2.72

320.57

0.81

0.033214

0.87

329.30

−8.73

−2.72

3.02

1974

2.44

323.01

0.82

0.033516

0.89

332.27

−9.26

−2.87

2.97

1975

2.48

325.49

0.84

0.033813

0.91

335.21

−9.72

−2.99

2.94

1976

2.32

327.81

0.86

0.034107

0.94

338.10

−10.29

−3.14

2.89

1977

2.50

330.31

0.88

0.034396

0.96

340.96

−10.65

−3.22

2.86

1978

2.56

332.87

0.90

0.034682

0.98

343.78

−10.91

−3.28

2.82

1979

2.62

335.49

0.92

0.034964

1.00

346.56

−11.07

−3.30

2.78

1980

2.70

338.19

0.94

0.035242

1.02

349.30

−11.11

−3.29

2.74

1981

2.58

340.77

0.96

0.035516

1.04

352.01

−11.24

−3.30

2.71

1982

2.90

343.67

0.98

0.035787

1.06

354.68

−11.01

−3.20

2.67

1983

2.89

346.56

1.00

0.036054

1.08

357.32

−10.76

−3.10

2.64

1984

3.03

349.59

1.02

0.036318

1.10

359.92

−10.33

−2.96

2.60

1985

3.52

353.11

1.05

0.036579

1.12

362.49

−9.38

−2.66

2.57

1986

3.70

356.81

1.08

0.036836

1.14

365.03

−8.22

−2.30

2.54

1987

4.00

360.81

1.11

0.037090

1.16

367.54

−6.73

−1.86

2.51

1988

3.76

364.57

1.13

0.037341

1.17

370.01

−5.44

−1.49

2.47

1989

3.41

367.98

1.16

0.037589

1.19

372.46

−4.48

−1.22

2.45

1990

3.77

371.75

1.19

0.037834

1.21

374.88

−3.13

−0.84

2.42

1991

3.11

374.86

1.21

0.038076

1.23

377.27

−2.41

−0.64

2.39

1992

3.57

378.43

1.24

0.038316

1.25

379.63

−1.20

−0.32

2.36

1993

3.43

381.86

1.26

0.038552

1.26

381.96

−0.10

−0.03

2.33

1994

3.25

385.11

1.29

0.038786

1.28

384.27

0.84

0.22

2.31

1995

3.36

388.47

1.31

0.039018

1.30

386.56

1.91

0.49

2.29

1996

3.26

391.73

1.34

0.039247

1.32

388.82

2.91

0.74

2.26

1997

2.87

394.60

1.36

0.039474

1.33

391.06

3.54

0.90

2.24

1998

2.66

397.26

1.38

0.039698

1.35

393.27

3.99

1.00

2.21

1999

2.56

399.82

1.40

0.039920

1.36

395.46

4.36

1.09

2.19

2000

2.62

402.44

1.42

0.040140

1.38

397.63

4.81

1.19

2.17

2001

2.40

404.84

1.43

0.040358

1.40

399.78

5.06

1.25

2.15

2002

2.30

407.14

1.45

0.040574

1.41

401.91

5.23

1.28

2.13

2003

2.80

409.94

1.47

0.040788

1.43

404.02

5.92

1.44

2.11

2004

2.50

412.44

1.49

0.041000

1.44

406.11

6.33

1.53

2.09

2005

2.30

414.74

1.51

0.041210

1.46

408.19

6.55

1.58

2.08

2006

2.30

417.04

1.52

0.041418

1.48

410.24

6.80

1.63

2.05

2007

2.14

419.18

1.54

0.041625

1.49

412.28

6.90

1.64

2.04

2008

2.04

421.22

1.56

0.041830

1.51

414.31

6.91

1.64

2.03

2009

2.01

423.23

1.57

0.042034

1.52

416.32

6.91

1.63

2.01

2010

1.98

425.21

1.59

0.042236

1.54

418.31

6.90

1.62

1.99