a | b(1) | b(2) | c | d | e | f | g (1) | g (2) | h |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Years | F Observed suicide growth rates st | F Observed St | zF obs.St (b and f) | F Predicted St | zF predic St | F Fitted | Residues b(2) − f from 1875 | % Residues (f/b(2)) × 100 | F Fitted derivative or suicide growth rates St+1 − St |
R2 = 0.996 | |||||||||
1873 | 1.39 | ||||||||
1874 | 1.87 | 3.26 | |||||||
1875 | 1.28 | 4.54 | −1.55 | 0.001600 | −1.46 | 17.37 | −12.83 | −282.62 | |
1876 | 1.24 | 5.78 | −1.54 | 0.001686 | −1.45 | 18.22 | −12.44 | −215.16 | 0.85 |
1877 | 1.62 | 7.40 | −1.53 | 0.001776 | −1.45 | 19.10 | −11.70 | −158.16 | 0.88 |
1878 | 1.71 | 9.11 | −1.52 | 0.001870 | −1.44 | 20.03 | −10.92 | −119.92 | 0.93 |
1879 | 1.60 | 10.71 | −1.51 | 0.001969 | −1.43 | 21.01 | −10.30 | −96.19 | 0.98 |
1880 | 1.82 | 12.53 | −1.49 | 0.002073 | −1.42 | 22.04 | −9.51 | −75.88 | 1.03 |
1881 | 1.94 | 14.47 | −1.48 | 0.002182 | −1.42 | 23.11 | −8.64 | −59.72 | 1.07 |
1882 | 1.70 | 16.17 | −1.47 | 0.002296 | −1.41 | 24.24 | −8.07 | −49.89 | 1.13 |
1883 | 2.01 | 18.18 | −1.45 | 0.002416 | −1.40 | 25.42 | −7.24 | −39.81 | 1.18 |
1884 | 1.76 | 19.94 | −1.44 | 0.002541 | −1.39 | 26.65 | −6.71 | −33.66 | 1.23 |
1885 | 1.90 | 21.84 | −1.42 | 0.002672 | −1.38 | 27.94 | −6.10 | −27.95 | 1.29 |
1886 | 1.48 | 23.32 | −1.41 | 0.002809 | −1.37 | 29.30 | −5.98 | −25.63 | 1.36 |
1887 | 1.80 | 25.12 | −1.40 | 0.002952 | −1.36 | 30.71 | −5.59 | −22.25 | 1.41 |
1888 | 2.08 | 27.20 | −1.38 | 0.003102 | −1.35 | 32.19 | −4.99 | −18.33 | 1.48 |
1889 | 2.12 | 29.32 | −1.37 | 0.003258 | −1.34 | 33.73 | −4.41 | −15.04 | 1.54 |
1890 | 1.96 | 31.28 | −1.35 | 0.003421 | −1.32 | 35.34 | −4.06 | −12.98 | 1.61 |
1891 | 2.07 | 33.35 | −1.34 | 0.003591 | −1.31 | 37.02 | −3.67 | −11.00 | 1.68 |
1892 | 2.16 | 35.51 | −1.32 | 0.003769 | −1.30 | 38.77 | −3.26 | −9.17 | 1.75 |
1893 | 1.97 | 37.48 | −1.31 | 0.003953 | −1.29 | 40.59 | −3.11 | −8.30 | 1.82 |
1894 | 1.25 | 38.73 | −1.30 | 0.004146 | −1.27 | 42.49 | −3.76 | −9.71 | 1.90 |
1895 | 2.34 | 41.07 | −1.28 | 0.004346 | −1.26 | 44.46 | −3.39 | −8.26 | 1.97 |
1896 | 2.57 | 43.64 | −1.26 | 0.004554 | −1.24 | 46.52 | −2.88 | −6.59 | 2.06 |
1897 | 2.45 | 46.09 | −1.24 | 0.004770 | −1.23 | 48.65 | −2.56 | −5.55 | 2.13 |
1898 | 2.68 | 48.77 | −1.22 | 0.004994 | −1.21 | 50.86 | −2.09 | −4.29 | 2.21 |
1899 | 2.63 | 51.40 | −1.20 | 0.005227 | −1.19 | 53.16 | −1.76 | −3.42 | 2.30 |
1900 | 2.62 | 54.02 | −1.18 | 0.005468 | −1.17 | 55.54 | −1.52 | −2.81 | 2.38 |
1901 | 2.55 | 56.57 | −1.17 | 0.005718 | −1.16 | 58.00 | −1.43 | −2.53 | 2.46 |
1902 | 2.61 | 59.18 | −1.15 | 0.005976 | −1.14 | 60.55 | −1.37 | −2.31 | 2.55 |
1903 | 2.33 | 61.51 | −1.13 | 0.006243 | −1.12 | 63.18 | −1.67 | −2.72 | 2.63 |
1904 | 2.71 | 64.22 | −1.11 | 0.006519 | −1.10 | 65.90 | −1.68 | −2.62 | 2.72 |
1905 | 3.04 | 67.26 | −1.09 | 0.006803 | −1.08 | 68.71 | −1.45 | −2.15 | 2.81 |
1906 | 3.45 | 70.71 | −1.06 | 0.007096 | −1.05 | 71.60 | −0.89 | −1.26 | 2.89 |
1907 | 3.68 | 74.39 | −1.03 | 0.007398 | −1.03 | 74.58 | −0.19 | −0.25 | 2.98 |
1908 | 3.59 | 77.98 | −1.01 | 0.007708 | −1.01 | 77.64 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 3.06 |
1909 | 4.01 | 81.99 | −0.98 | 0.008027 | −0.99 | 80.79 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 3.15 |
1910 | 3.95 | 85.94 | −0.95 | 0.008355 | −0.96 | 84.02 | 1.92 | 2.23 | 3.23 |
1911 | 4.62 | 90.56 | −0.91 | 0.008691 | −0.94 | 87.34 | 3.22 | 3.56 | 3.32 |
1912 | 4.63 | 95.19 | −0.88 | 0.009035 | −0.91 | 90.73 | 4.46 | 4.68 | 3.39 |
1913 | 4.61 | 99.80 | −0.84 | 0.009387 | −0.89 | 94.21 | 5.59 | 5.60 | 3.48 |
1914 | 4.89 | 104.69 | −0.81 | 0.009748 | −0.86 | 97.76 | 6.93 | 6.62 | 3.55 |
1915 | 4.35 | 109.04 | −0.77 | 0.010115 | −0.83 | 101.39 | 7.65 | 7.02 | 3.63 |
1916 | 3.92 | 112.96 | −0.74 | 0.010490 | −0.80 | 105.09 | 7.87 | 6.97 | 3.70 |
1917 | 3.80 | 116.76 | −0.72 | 0.010872 | −0.78 | 108.86 | 7.90 | 6.77 | 3.77 |
1918 | 4.32 | 121.08 | −0.68 | 0.011261 | −0.75 | 112.70 | 8.38 | 6.92 | 3.84 |
1919 | 4.20 | 125.28 | −0.65 | 0.011657 | −0.72 | 116.60 | 8.68 | 6.93 | 3.90 |
1920 | 4.46 | 129.74 | −0.62 | 0.012058 | −0.69 | 120.56 | 9.18 | 7.08 | 3.96 |
1921 | 4.16 | 133.90 | −0.59 | 0.012466 | −0.66 | 124.58 | 9.32 | 6.96 | 4.02 |
1922 | 4.34 | 138.24 | −0.56 | 0.012879 | −0.63 | 128.65 | 9.59 | 6.93 | 4.07 |
1923 | 4.48 | 142.72 | −0.52 | 0.013297 | −0.60 | 132.78 | 9.94 | 6.97 | 4.13 |
1924 | 5.08 | 147.80 | −0.48 | 0.013719 | −0.57 | 136.95 | 10.85 | 7.34 | 4.17 |
1925 | 4.86 | 152.66 | −0.45 | 0.014146 | −0.53 | 141.16 | 11.50 | 7.53 | 4.21 |
1926 | 4.75 | 157.41 | −0.41 | 0.014577 | −0.50 | 145.41 | 12.00 | 7.63 | 4.25 |
1927 | 5.07 | 162.48 | −0.37 | 0.015011 | −0.47 | 149.69 | 12.79 | 7.87 | 4.28 |
1928 | 4.90 | 167.38 | −0.34 | 0.015448 | −0.44 | 154.00 | 13.38 | 7.99 | 4.31 |
1929 | 4.69 | 172.07 | −0.30 | 0.015887 | −0.41 | 158.34 | 13.73 | 7.98 | 4.34 |
1930 | 4.69 | 176.76 | −0.27 | 0.016329 | −0.37 | 162.70 | 14.06 | 7.96 | 4.36 |
1931 | 4.75 | 181.51 | −0.23 | 0.016772 | −0.34 | 167.07 | 14.44 | 7.96 | 4.37 |
1932 | 4.82 | 186.33 | −0.20 | 0.017217 | −0.31 | 171.46 | 14.87 | 7.98 | 4.39 |
1933 | 4.28 | 190.61 | −0.16 | 0.017663 | −0.28 | 175.86 | 14.75 | 7.74 | 4.40 |
1934 | 4.56 | 195.17 | −0.13 | 0.018109 | −0.24 | 180.26 | 14.91 | 7.64 | 4.40 |
1935 | 4.09 | 199.26 | −0.10 | 0.018555 | −0.21 | 184.66 | 14.60 | 7.33 | 4.40 |
1936 | 4.02 | 203.28 | −0.07 | 0.019001 | −0.18 | 189.06 | 14.22 | 7.00 | 4.40 |
1937 | 3.95 | 207.23 | −0.04 | 0.019446 | −0.14 | 193.45 | 13.78 | 6.65 | 4.39 |
1938 | 3.68 | 210.91 | −0.01 | 0.019890 | −0.11 | 197.83 | 13.08 | 6.20 | 4.38 |
1939 | 3.62 | 214.53 | 0.01 | 0.020333 | −0.08 | 202.20 | 12.33 | 5.75 | 4.37 |
1940 | 3.11 | 217.64 | 0.04 | 0.020774 | −0.05 | 206.55 | 11.09 | 5.09 | 4.35 |
1941 | 2.82 | 220.46 | 0.06 | 0.021213 | −0.01 | 210.89 | 9.57 | 4.34 | 4.34 |
1942 | 2.77 | 223.23 | 0.08 | 0.021650 | 0.02 | 215.20 | 8.03 | 3.60 | 4.31 |
1943 | 2.43 | 225.66 | 0.10 | 0.022084 | 0.05 | 219.48 | 6.18 | 2.74 | 4.28 |
1944 | 2.06 | 227.72 | 0.11 | 0.022516 | 0.08 | 223.74 | 3.98 | 1.75 | 4.26 |
1945 | 2.69 | 230.41 | 0.13 | 0.022944 | 0.11 | 227.96 | 2.45 | 1.06 | 4.22 |
1946 | 2.97 | 233.38 | 0.15 | 0.023369 | 0.15 | 232.16 | 1.22 | 0.52 | 4.20 |
1947 | 3.03 | 236.41 | 0.18 | 0.023790 | 0.18 | 236.32 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 4.16 |
1948 | 3.38 | 239.79 | 0.20 | 0.024208 | 0.21 | 240.44 | −0.65 | −0.27 | 4.12 |
1949 | 3.62 | 243.41 | 0.23 | 0.024622 | 0.24 | 244.52 | −1.11 | −0.46 | 4.08 |
1950 | 3.58 | 246.99 | 0.26 | 0.025032 | 0.27 | 248.57 | −1.58 | −0.64 | 4.05 |
1951 | 3.45 | 250.44 | 0.28 | 0.025438 | 0.30 | 252.58 | −2.14 | −0.85 | 4.01 |
1952 | 3.51 | 253.95 | 0.31 | 0.025840 | 0.33 | 256.54 | −2.59 | −1.02 | 3.96 |
1953 | 3.88 | 257.83 | 0.34 | 0.026237 | 0.36 | 260.46 | −2.63 | −1.02 | 3.92 |
1954 | 3.55 | 261.38 | 0.36 | 0.026630 | 0.39 | 264.33 | −2.95 | −1.13 | 3.87 |
1955 | 3.70 | 265.08 | 0.39 | 0.027019 | 0.41 | 268.17 | −3.09 | −1.16 | 3.84 |
1956 | 3.58 | 268.66 | 0.42 | 0.027402 | 0.44 | 271.95 | −3.29 | −1.23 | 3.78 |
1957 | 3.67 | 272.33 | 0.44 | 0.027781 | 0.47 | 275.69 | −3.36 | −1.23 | 3.74 |
1958 | 3.55 | 275.88 | 0.47 | 0.028156 | 0.50 | 279.39 | −3.51 | −1.27 | 3.70 |
1959 | 3.61 | 279.49 | 0.50 | 0.028526 | 0.53 | 283.04 | −3.55 | −1.27 | 3.65 |
1960 | 3.56 | 283.05 | 0.52 | 0.028891 | 0.55 | 286.64 | −3.59 | −1.27 | 3.60 |
1961 | 3.27 | 286.32 | 0.55 | 0.029251 | 0.58 | 290.19 | −3.87 | −1.35 | 3.55 |
1962 | 2.84 | 289.16 | 0.57 | 0.029606 | 0.60 | 293.70 | −4.54 | −1.57 | 3.51 |
1963 | 2.90 | 292.06 | 0.59 | 0.029957 | 0.63 | 297.16 | −5.10 | −1.75 | 3.46 |
1964 | 3.05 | 295.11 | 0.61 | 0.030304 | 0.66 | 300.58 | −5.47 | −1.85 | 3.42 |
1965 | 2.99 | 298.10 | 0.64 | 0.030645 | 0.68 | 303.95 | −5.85 | −1.96 | 3.37 |
1966 | 2.77 | 300.87 | 0.66 | 0.030982 | 0.71 | 307.27 | −6.40 | −2.13 | 3.32 |
1967 | 3.08 | 303.95 | 0.68 | 0.031314 | 0.73 | 310.55 | −6.60 | −2.17 | 3.28 |
1968 | 2.92 | 306.87 | 0.70 | 0.031642 | 0.75 | 313.78 | −6.91 | −2.25 | 3.23 |
1969 | 2.82 | 309.69 | 0.72 | 0.031965 | 0.78 | 316.97 | −7.28 | −2.35 | 3.19 |
1970 | 2.70 | 312.39 | 0.74 | 0.032284 | 0.80 | 320.12 | −7.73 | −2.47 | 3.15 |
1971 | 2.71 | 315.10 | 0.76 | 0.032598 | 0.83 | 323.22 | −8.12 | −2.58 | 3.10 |
1972 | 2.75 | 317.85 | 0.78 | 0.032908 | 0.85 | 326.28 | −8.43 | −2.65 | 3.06 |
1973 | 2.72 | 320.57 | 0.81 | 0.033214 | 0.87 | 329.30 | −8.73 | −2.72 | 3.02 |
1974 | 2.44 | 323.01 | 0.82 | 0.033516 | 0.89 | 332.27 | −9.26 | −2.87 | 2.97 |
1975 | 2.48 | 325.49 | 0.84 | 0.033813 | 0.91 | 335.21 | −9.72 | −2.99 | 2.94 |
1976 | 2.32 | 327.81 | 0.86 | 0.034107 | 0.94 | 338.10 | −10.29 | −3.14 | 2.89 |
1977 | 2.50 | 330.31 | 0.88 | 0.034396 | 0.96 | 340.96 | −10.65 | −3.22 | 2.86 |
1978 | 2.56 | 332.87 | 0.90 | 0.034682 | 0.98 | 343.78 | −10.91 | −3.28 | 2.82 |
1979 | 2.62 | 335.49 | 0.92 | 0.034964 | 1.00 | 346.56 | −11.07 | −3.30 | 2.78 |
1980 | 2.70 | 338.19 | 0.94 | 0.035242 | 1.02 | 349.30 | −11.11 | −3.29 | 2.74 |
1981 | 2.58 | 340.77 | 0.96 | 0.035516 | 1.04 | 352.01 | −11.24 | −3.30 | 2.71 |
1982 | 2.90 | 343.67 | 0.98 | 0.035787 | 1.06 | 354.68 | −11.01 | −3.20 | 2.67 |
1983 | 2.89 | 346.56 | 1.00 | 0.036054 | 1.08 | 357.32 | −10.76 | −3.10 | 2.64 |
1984 | 3.03 | 349.59 | 1.02 | 0.036318 | 1.10 | 359.92 | −10.33 | −2.96 | 2.60 |
1985 | 3.52 | 353.11 | 1.05 | 0.036579 | 1.12 | 362.49 | −9.38 | −2.66 | 2.57 |
1986 | 3.70 | 356.81 | 1.08 | 0.036836 | 1.14 | 365.03 | −8.22 | −2.30 | 2.54 |
1987 | 4.00 | 360.81 | 1.11 | 0.037090 | 1.16 | 367.54 | −6.73 | −1.86 | 2.51 |
1988 | 3.76 | 364.57 | 1.13 | 0.037341 | 1.17 | 370.01 | −5.44 | −1.49 | 2.47 |
1989 | 3.41 | 367.98 | 1.16 | 0.037589 | 1.19 | 372.46 | −4.48 | −1.22 | 2.45 |
1990 | 3.77 | 371.75 | 1.19 | 0.037834 | 1.21 | 374.88 | −3.13 | −0.84 | 2.42 |
1991 | 3.11 | 374.86 | 1.21 | 0.038076 | 1.23 | 377.27 | −2.41 | −0.64 | 2.39 |
1992 | 3.57 | 378.43 | 1.24 | 0.038316 | 1.25 | 379.63 | −1.20 | −0.32 | 2.36 |
1993 | 3.43 | 381.86 | 1.26 | 0.038552 | 1.26 | 381.96 | −0.10 | −0.03 | 2.33 |
1994 | 3.25 | 385.11 | 1.29 | 0.038786 | 1.28 | 384.27 | 0.84 | 0.22 | 2.31 |
1995 | 3.36 | 388.47 | 1.31 | 0.039018 | 1.30 | 386.56 | 1.91 | 0.49 | 2.29 |
1996 | 3.26 | 391.73 | 1.34 | 0.039247 | 1.32 | 388.82 | 2.91 | 0.74 | 2.26 |
1997 | 2.87 | 394.60 | 1.36 | 0.039474 | 1.33 | 391.06 | 3.54 | 0.90 | 2.24 |
1998 | 2.66 | 397.26 | 1.38 | 0.039698 | 1.35 | 393.27 | 3.99 | 1.00 | 2.21 |
1999 | 2.56 | 399.82 | 1.40 | 0.039920 | 1.36 | 395.46 | 4.36 | 1.09 | 2.19 |
2000 | 2.62 | 402.44 | 1.42 | 0.040140 | 1.38 | 397.63 | 4.81 | 1.19 | 2.17 |
2001 | 2.40 | 404.84 | 1.43 | 0.040358 | 1.40 | 399.78 | 5.06 | 1.25 | 2.15 |
2002 | 2.30 | 407.14 | 1.45 | 0.040574 | 1.41 | 401.91 | 5.23 | 1.28 | 2.13 |
2003 | 2.80 | 409.94 | 1.47 | 0.040788 | 1.43 | 404.02 | 5.92 | 1.44 | 2.11 |
2004 | 2.50 | 412.44 | 1.49 | 0.041000 | 1.44 | 406.11 | 6.33 | 1.53 | 2.09 |
2005 | 2.30 | 414.74 | 1.51 | 0.041210 | 1.46 | 408.19 | 6.55 | 1.58 | 2.08 |
2006 | 2.30 | 417.04 | 1.52 | 0.041418 | 1.48 | 410.24 | 6.80 | 1.63 | 2.05 |
2007 | 2.14 | 419.18 | 1.54 | 0.041625 | 1.49 | 412.28 | 6.90 | 1.64 | 2.04 |
2008 | 2.04 | 421.22 | 1.56 | 0.041830 | 1.51 | 414.31 | 6.91 | 1.64 | 2.03 |
2009 | 2.01 | 423.23 | 1.57 | 0.042034 | 1.52 | 416.32 | 6.91 | 1.63 | 2.01 |
2010 | 1.98 | 425.21 | 1.59 | 0.042236 | 1.54 | 418.31 | 6.90 | 1.62 | 1.99 |