Social complexity, modernity and suicide: an assessment of Durkheim’s suicide from the perspective of a non-linear analysis of complex social systems

Condorelli, Rosalia

doi:10.1186/s40064-016-1799-z

SpringerPlus

Table 4 Observed and fitted male suicide data by model S_t+1 = 1.069 × 0.0055–1.116 × 0.0055² + 5 × 0.0055³

From: Social complexity, modernity and suicide: an assessment of Durkheim’s suicide from the perspective of a non-linear analysis of complex social systems

a	b(1)	b(2)	c	d	e	f	g (1)	g (2)	h
Years	M Observed suicide growth rates s_t	M Observed S_t	zM Obs.S_t (b and f)	M Predicted S_t	zM Predic S_t	M Fitted St	Residues b(2) − f from 1875	% Residues (f/b(2)) × 100	M Fitted derivative or suicide growth rates S_t+1 − S_t
R² = 0.999
1873	5.80
1874	5.57	11.37
1875	5.43	16.80	−1.70	0.005500	−1.61	49.65	−32.85	−195.56
1876	6.18	22.98	−1.68	0.005847	−1.61	53.14	−30.16	−131.26	3.49
1877	6.58	29.56	−1.67	0.006213	−1.60	56.83	−27.27	−92.26	3.69
1878	6.58	36.14	−1.65	0.006600	−1.59	60.73	−24.59	−68.03	3.90
1879	7.12	43.26	−1.63	0.007008	−1.57	64.84	−21.58	−49.88	4.11
1880	7.10	50.36	−1.61	0.007438	−1.56	69.17	−18.81	−37.36	4.33
1881	7.51	57.87	−1.59	0.007892	−1.55	73.74	−15.87	−27.42	4.57
1882	8.10	65.97	−1.57	0.008369	−1.54	78.55	−12.58	−19.07	4.81
1883	8.09	74.06	−1.55	0.008872	−1.53	83.60	−9.54	−12.89	5.05
1884	7.68	81.74	−1.53	0.009399	−1.51	88.92	−7.18	−8.78	5.32
1885	8.09	89.83	−1.51	0.009954	−1.50	94.50	−4.67	−5.20	5.58
1886	6.84	96.67	−1.49	0.010535	−1.48	100.35	−3.68	−3.81	5.85
1887	7.98	104.65	−1.47	0.011144	−1.47	106.48	−1.83	−1.75	6.13
1888	8.58	113.23	−1.45	0.011781	−1.45	112.90	0.33	0.29	6.42
1889	7.62	120.85	−1.43	0.012447	−1.43	119.61	1.24	1.03	6.71
1890	8.97	129.82	−1.41	0.013143	−1.42	126.61	3.21	2.47	7.00
1891	9.08	138.90	−1.38	0.013868	−1.40	133.92	4.98	3.59	7.31
1892	9.09	147.99	−1.36	0.014624	−1.38	141.52	6.47	4.37	7.60
1893	9.29	157.28	−1.34	0.015410	−1.36	149.44	7.84	4.99	7.92
1894	8.90	166.18	−1.31	0.016226	−1.34	157.66	8.52	5.13	8.22
1895	9.65	175.83	−1.29	0.017073	−1.31	166.19	9.64	5.48	8.53
1896	10.15	185.98	−1.26	0.017951	−1.29	175.03	10.95	5.89	8.84
1897	9.52	195.50	−1.24	0.018859	−1.27	184.17	11.33	5.80	9.14
1898	10.24	205.74	−1.21	0.019797	−1.24	193.61	12.13	5.89	9.44
1899	9.96	215.70	−1.19	0.020764	−1.22	203.36	12.34	5.72	9.75
1900	10.03	225.73	−1.16	0.021760	−1.19	213.39	12.34	5.47	10.03
1901	9.86	235.59	−1.14	0.022785	−1.17	223.70	11.89	5.05	10.31
1902	9.72	245.31	−1.11	0.023837	−1.14	234.30	11.01	4.49	10.60
1903	9.43	254.74	−1.09	0.024915	−1.11	245.15	9.59	3.76	10.85
1904	10.42	265.16	−1.06	0.026019	−1.08	256.27	8.89	3.35	11.12
1905	11.37	276.53	−1.03	0.027147	−1.05	267.63	8.90	3.22	11.36
1906	10.65	287.18	−1.00	0.028298	−1.02	279.21	7.97	2.77	11.58
1907	11.00	298.18	−0.97	0.029470	−0.99	291.02	7.16	2.40	11.81
1908	12.48	310.66	−0.94	0.030662	−0.96	303.02	7.64	2.46	12.00
1909	13.55	324.21	−0.91	0.031872	−0.93	315.21	9.00	2.78	12.19
1910	12.95	337.16	−0.87	0.033100	−0.90	327.57	9.59	2.84	12.36
1911	11.38	348.54	−0.85	0.034342	−0.87	340.08	8.46	2.43	12.51
1912	12.57	361.11	−0.81	0.035598	−0.83	352.73	8.38	2.32	12.65
1913	13.08	374.19	−0.78	0.036866	−0.80	365.49	8.70	2.32	12.76
1914	13.00	387.19	−0.75	0.038143	−0.77	378.36	8.83	2.28	12.87
1915	12.78	399.97	−0.71	0.039429	−0.73	391.30	8.67	2.17	12.94
1916	9.96	409.93	−0.69	0.040721	−0.70	404.31	5.62	1.37	13.01
1917	10.03	419.96	−0.66	0.042018	−0.67	417.37	2.59	0.62	13.06
1918	10.70	430.66	−0.63	0.043318	−0.63	430.46	0.20	0.05	13.09
1919	10.47	441.13	−0.61	0.044619	−0.60	443.56	−2.43	−0.55	13.10
1920	10.23	451.36	−0.58	0.045920	−0.57	456.66	−5.30	−1.17	13.10
1921	11.59	462.95	−0.55	0.047220	−0.53	469.75	−6.80	−1.47	13.09
1922	12.35	475.30	−0.52	0.048516	−0.50	482.80	−7.50	−1.58	13.05
1923	13.12	488.42	−0.49	0.049808	−0.47	495.81	−7.39	−1.51	13.01
1924	14.56	502.98	−0.45	0.051094	−0.43	508.76	−5.78	−1.15	12.95
1925	14.08	517.06	−0.41	0.052373	−0.40	521.63	−4.57	−0.88	12.87
1926	15.05	532.11	−0.37	0.053643	−0.37	534.43	−2.32	−0.44	12.80
1927	16.29	548.40	−0.33	0.054905	−0.33	547.14	1.26	0.23	12.71
1928	14.71	563.11	−0.29	0.056157	−0.30	559.74	3.37	0.60	12.60
1929	13.42	576.53	−0.26	0.057398	−0.27	572.24	4.29	0.74	12.50
1930	14.67	591.20	−0.22	0.058627	−0.24	584.61	6.59	1.11	12.37
1931	15.60	606.80	−0.18	0.059844	−0.21	596.87	9.93	1.64	12.26
1932	14.92	621.72	−0.14	0.061048	−0.17	608.99	12.73	2.05	12.12
1933	13.62	635.34	−0.11	0.062239	−0.14	620.98	14.36	2.26	11.99
1934	13.05	648.39	−0.07	0.063416	−0.11	632.83	15.56	2.40	11.85
1935	11.38	659.77	−0.04	0.064579	−0.08	644.54	15.23	2.31	11.71
1936	11.95	671.72	−0.01	0.065727	−0.05	656.11	15.61	2.32	11.57
1937	11.40	683.12	0.02	0.066861	−0.02	667.52	15.60	2.28	11.41
1938	11.90	695.02	0.05	0.067980	0.00	678.79	16.23	2.34	11.27
1939	10.29	705.31	0.07	0.069084	0.03	689.91	15.40	2.18	11.12
1940	8.85	714.16	0.10	0.070173	0.06	700.87	13.29	1.86	10.96
1941	7.83	721.99	0.12	0.071247	0.09	711.69	10.30	1.43	10.82
1942	7.79	729.78	0.14	0.072306	0.12	722.36	7.42	1.02	10.67
1943	7.66	737.44	0.16	0.073351	0.14	732.88	4.56	0.62	10.52
1944	5.94	743.38	0.17	0.074381	0.17	743.25	0.13	0.02	10.37
1945	6.92	750.30	0.19	0.075397	0.20	753.47	−3.17	−0.42	10.22
1946	7.78	758.08	0.21	0.076398	0.22	763.56	−5.48	−0.72	10.09
1947	8.79	766.87	0.23	0.077385	0.25	773.50	−6.63	−0.86	9.94
1948	9.28	776.15	0.26	0.078359	0.27	783.30	−7.15	−0.92	9.80
1949	9.75	785.90	0.28	0.079319	0.30	792.97	−7.07	−0.90	9.67
1950	9.52	795.42	0.30	0.080266	0.32	802.50	−7.08	−0.89	9.53
1951	10.01	805.43	0.33	0.081200	0.35	811.91	−6.48	−0.80	9.41
1952	9.09	814.52	0.35	0.082121	0.37	821.19	−6.67	−0.82	9.28
1953	8.97	823.49	0.38	0.083030	0.39	830.34	−6.85	−0.83	9.15
1954	12.26	835.75	0.41	0.083928	0.42	839.38	−3.63	−0.43	9.04
1955	12.55	848.30	0.44	0.084814	0.44	848.30	0.00	0.00	8.92
1956	9.16	857.46	0.46	0.085689	0.46	857.11	0.35	0.04	8.81
1957	8.66	866.12	0.49	0.086553	0.49	865.81	0.31	0.04	8.70
1958	8.30	874.42	0.51	0.087406	0.51	874.41	0.01	0.00	8.60
1959	8.64	883.06	0.53	0.088250	0.53	882.90	0.16	0.02	8.49
1960	8.24	891.30	0.55	0.089085	0.55	891.30	0.00	0.00	8.40
1961	7.78	899.08	0.57	0.089910	0.57	899.61	−0.53	−0.06	8.31
1962	7.20	906.28	0.59	0.090726	0.59	907.83	−1.55	−0.17	8.22
1963	6.96	913.24	0.61	0.091534	0.61	915.97	−2.73	−0.30	8.14
1964	7.08	920.32	0.63	0.092334	0.64	924.02	−3.70	−0.40	8.05
1965	7.16	927.48	0.64	0.093127	0.66	932.00	−4.52	−0.49	7.98
1966	7.22	934.70	0.66	0.093912	0.68	939.91	−5.21	−0.56	7.91
1967	7.24	941.94	0.68	0.094691	0.70	947.75	−5.81	−0.62	7.84
1968	6.95	948.89	0.70	0.095463	0.72	955.53	−6.64	−0.70	7.78
1969	7.25	956.14	0.72	0.096229	0.74	963.25	−7.11	−0.74	7.72
1970	6.57	962.71	0.74	0.096990	0.76	970.91	−8.20	−0.85	7.66
1971	6.64	969.35	0.75	0.097746	0.78	978.52	−9.17	−0.95	7.61
1972	6.38	975.73	0.77	0.098498	0.80	986.09	−10.36	−1.06	7.57
1973	6.55	982.28	0.79	0.099245	0.81	993.61	−11.33	−1.15	7.52
1974	6.02	988.30	0.80	0.099988	0.83	1001.10	−12.80	−1.29	7.49
1975	6.01	994.31	0.82	0.100728	0.85	1008.55	−14.24	−1.43	7.45
1976	5.90	1000.21	0.83	0.101466	0.87	1015.97	−15.76	−1.58	7.42
1977	6.52	1006.73	0.85	0.102200	0.89	1023.37	−16.64	−1.65	7.40
1978	6.85	1013.58	0.87	0.102933	0.91	1030.75	−17.17	−1.69	7.38
1979	6.82	1020.40	0.88	0.103664	0.93	1038.11	−17.71	−1.74	7.36
1980	6.71	1027.11	0.90	0.104394	0.95	1045.46	−18.35	−1.79	7.35
1981	7.28	1034.39	0.92	0.105123	0.97	1052.81	−18.42	−1.78	7.35
1982	7.58	1041.97	0.94	0.105853	0.99	1060.15	−18.18	−1.74	7.34
1983	7.24	1049.21	0.96	0.106582	1.00	1067.49	−18.28	−1.74	7.34
1984	8.12	1057.33	0.98	0.107313	1.02	1074.85	−17.52	−1.66	7.36
1985	9.50	1066.83	1.00	0.108044	1.04	1082.22	−15.39	−1.44	7.37
1986	9.54	1076.37	1.03	0.108778	1.06	1089.61	−13.24	−1.23	7.39
1987	10.09	1086.46	1.05	0.109514	1.08	1097.02	−10.56	−0.97	7.41
1988	9.65	1096.11	1.08	0.110253	1.10	1104.46	−8.35	−0.76	7.44
1989	9.32	1105.43	1.10	0.110996	1.12	1111.94	−6.51	−0.59	7.48
1990	9.63	1115.06	1.13	0.111743	1.14	1119.46	−4.40	−0.39	7.52
1991	8.90	1123.96	1.15	0.112495	1.16	1127.03	−3.07	−0.27	7.57
1992	10.80	1134.76	1.18	0.113252	1.18	1134.65	0.11	0.01	7.62
1993	11.20	1145.96	1.21	0.114015	1.20	1142.34	3.62	0.32	7.69
1994	10.75	1156.71	1.23	0.114786	1.22	1150.10	6.61	0.57	7.76
1995	10.61	1167.32	1.26	0.115564	1.24	1157.93	9.39	0.80	7.83
1996	9.73	1177.05	1.29	0.116350	1.26	1165.85	11.20	0.95	7.92
1997	9.48	1186.53	1.31	0.117146	1.28	1173.87	12.66	1.07	8.02
1998	9.46	1195.99	1.34	0.117952	1.30	1181.98	14.01	1.17	8.11
1999	8.19	1204.18	1.36	0.118769	1.32	1190.21	13.97	1.16	8.23
2000	8.42	1212.60	1.38	0.119599	1.34	1198.56	14.04	1.16	8.35
2001	7.67	1220.27	1.40	0.120442	1.36	1207.05	13.22	1.08	8.49
2002	8.13	1228.40	1.42	0.121299	1.39	1215.68	12.72	1.04	8.63
2003	8.99	1237.39	1.44	0.122172	1.41	1224.47	12.92	1.04	8.79
2004	8.83	1246.22	1.46	0.123062	1.43	1233.44	12.78	1.03	8.97
2005	7.68	1253.90	1.48	0.123971	1.46	1242.59	11.31	0.90	9.15
2006	8.20	1262.10	1.51	0.124900	1.48	1251.94	10.16	0.80	9.35
2007	7.63	1269.73	1.53	0.125850	1.50	1261.51	8.22	0.65	9.57
2008	7.53	1277.26	1.54	0.126825	1.53	1271.33	5.93	0.46	9.82
2009	8.34	1285.60	1.57	0.127825	1.56	1281.40	4.20	0.33	10.07
2010	8.15	1293.75	1.59	0.128853	1.58	1291.75	2.00	0.15	10.35

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