Social complexity, modernity and suicide: an assessment of Durkheim’s suicide from the perspective of a non-linear analysis of complex social systems

Condorelli, Rosalia

doi:10.1186/s40064-016-1799-z

SpringerPlus

Table 3 Observed and fitted data by the model S_t+1 = 1.069 × 0.0030–1.727 × 0.0030² + 11.949 × 0.0030³. R² = 0.998

From: Social complexity, modernity and suicide: an assessment of Durkheim’s suicide from the perspective of a non-linear analysis of complex social systems

a	b (1)	b (2)	b (2)	c	d	e	f	g (1)	g (2)	h
Years	Observed suicide growth rates s_t	Observed S_t	Observed suicide growth rates s_t (1876-1875. etc..)	Z obs.S_t (b 2)	Predicted S_t	Z pred. S_t	Fitted St	Residues b(2)-f from 1875	% Residues (f/ b(2))*100	Fitted derivative or suicide growth rates S_t+1 -S_t
1873	3.43
1874	3.55
1875	3.21	10.19		−1.65	0.003000	−1.56	33.26	−23.07	−226.37
1876	3.54	13.73	3.54	−1.64	0.003192	−1.55	35.20	−21.47	−156.37	1.94
1877	3.90	17.63	3.90	−1.62	0.003395	−1.54	37.25	−19.62	−111.30	2.05
1878	3.95	21.58	3.95	−1.61	0.003610	−1.54	39.43	−17.85	−82.70	2.18
1879	4.14	25.72	4.14	−1.59	0.003837	−1.53	41.72	−16.00	−62.22	2.29
1880	4.27	29.99	4.27	−1.57	0.004077	−1.52	44.15	−14.16	−47.22	2.43
1881	4.51	34.50	4.51	−1.56	0.004330	−1.51	46.71	−12.21	−35.39	2.56
1882	4.63	39.13	4.63	−1.54	0.004597	−1.50	49.41	−10.28	−26.27	2.70
1883	4.82	43.95	4.82	−1.52	0.004879	−1.48	52.26	−8.31	−18.92	2.85
1884	4.49	48.44	4.49	−1.50	0.005176	−1.47	55.27	−6.83	−14.10	3.01
1885	4.74	53.18	4.74	−1.48	0.005489	−1.46	58.43	−5.25	−9.88	3.16
1886	3.96	57.14	3.96	−1.47	0.005818	−1.45	61.76	−4.62	−8.09	3.33
1887	4.65	61.79	4.65	−1.45	0.006163	−1.43	65.25	−3.46	−5.60	3.49
1888	5.07	66.86	5.07	−1.43	0.006525	−1.42	68.91	−2.05	−3.07	3.66
1889	4.63	71.49	4.63	−1.41	0.006905	−1.40	72.76	−1.27	−1.77	3.85
1890	5.20	76.69	5.20	−1.39	0.007303	−1.39	76.78	−.09	−.12	4.02
1891	5.30	81.99	5.30	−1.37	0.007720	−1.37	81.00	.99	1.21	4.22
1892	5.35	87.34	5.35	−1.35	0.008155	−1.35	85.40	1.94	2.22	4.40
1893	5.36	92.70	5.36	−1.32	0.008609	−1.34	89.99	2.71	2.92	4.59
1894	5.31	98.01	5.31	−1.30	0.009083	−1.32	94.79	3.22	3.29	4.80
1895	5.72	103.73	5.72	−1.28	0.009576	−1.30	99.77	3.96	3.81	4.98
1896	6.07	109.80	6.07	−1.26	0.010089	−1.28	104.96	4.84	4.40	5.19
1897	5.71	115.51	5.71	−1.23	0.010622	−1.26	110.36	5.15	4.46	5.40
1898	6.17	121.68	6.17	−1.21	0.011174	−1.23	115.94	5.74	4.72	5.58
1899	6.00	127.68	6.00	−1.19	0.011746	−1.21	121.72	5.96	4.66	5.78
1900	6.05	133.73	6.05	−1.16	0.012338	−1.19	127.71	6.02	4.50	5.99
1901	5.92	139.65	5.92	−1.14	0.012949	−1.16	133.89	5.76	4.12	6.18
1902	5.85	145.50	5.85	−1.12	0.013579	−1.14	140.27	5.23	3.60	6.38
1903	5.56	151.06	5.56	−1.09	0.014227	−1.11	146.82	4.24	2.81	6.55
1904	6.18	157.24	6.18	−1.07	0.014893	−1.08	153.56	3.68	2.34	6.74
1905	6.77	164.01	6.77	−1.04	0.015578	−1.06	160.49	3.52	2.15	6.93
1906	6.54	170.55	6.54	−1.02	0.016278	−1.03	167.57	2.98	1.75	7.08
1907	6.84	177.39	6.84	−.99	0.016996	−1.00	174.83	2.56	1.44	7.26
1908	7.47	184.86	7.47	−.96	0.017728	−0.97	182.23	2.63	1.42	7.40
1909	8.16	193.02	8.16	−.93	0.018475	−0.94	189.79	3.23	1.67	7.56
1910	7.83	200.85	7.83	−.90	0.019236	−0.91	197.49	3.36	1.67	7.70
1911	7.43	208.28	7.43	−.87	0.020009	−0.88	205.31	2.97	1.43	7.82
1912	8.02	216.30	8.02	−.84	0.020794	−0.85	213.25	3.05	1.41	7.94
1913	8.34	224.64	8.34	−.80	0.021590	−0.82	221.30	3.34	1.49	8.05
1914	8.42	233.06	8.42	−.77	0.022394	−0.78	229.43	3.63	1.56	8.13
1915	8.10	241.16	8.10	−.74	0.023208	−0.75	237.67	3.49	1.45	8.24
1916	6.64	247.80	6.64	−.71	0.024028	−0.72	245.96	1.84	.74	8.29
1917	6.44	254.24	6.44	−.69	0.024855	−0.69	254.32	−.08	−.03	8.36
1918	7.10	261.34	7.10	−.66	0.025686	−0.65	262.73	−1.39	−.53	8.41
1919	7.05	268.39	7.05	−.63	0.026522	−0.62	271.19	−2.80	−1.04	8.46
1920	7.11	275.50	7.11	−.60	0.027360	−0.59	279.66	−4.16	−1.51	8.47
1921	7.61	283.11	7.61	−.57	0.028200	−0.55	288.16	−5.05	−1.78	8.50
1922	7.91	291.02	7.91	−.54	0.029040	−0.52	296.66	−5.64	−1.94	8.50
1923	8.34	299.36	8.34	−.51	0.029880	−0.48	305.15	−5.79	−1.94	8.49
1924	9.69	309.05	9.69	−.47	0.030719	−0.45	313.64	−4.59	−1.49	8.49
1925	9.34	318.39	9.34	−.43	0.031555	−0.42	322.10	−3.71	−1.16	8.46
1926	9.76	328.15	9.76	−.39	0.032388	−0.38	330.52	−2.37	−.72	8.42
1927	10.52	338.67	10.52	−.35	0.033217	−0.35	338.91	−.24	−.07	8.39
1928	9.67	348.34	9.67	−.31	0.034042	−0.32	347.25	1.09	.31	8.34
1929	8.87	357.21	8.87	−.28	0.034861	−0.29	355.54	1.67	.47	8.29
1930	9.55	366.76	9.55	−.24	0.035674	−0.25	363.76	3.00	.82	8.22
1931	10.03	376.79	10.03	−.20	0.036480	−0.22	371.91	4.88	1.29	8.15
1932	9.76	386.55	9.76	−.16	0.037279	−0.19	380.00	6.55	1.70	8.09
1933	8.85	395.40	8.85	−.13	0.038070	−0.16	388.00	7.40	1.87	8.00
1934	8.72	404.12	8.72	−.09	0.038853	−0.13	395.92	8.20	2.03	7.92
1935	7.67	411.79	7.67	−.06	0.039628	−0.09	403.76	8.03	1.95	7.84
1936	7.92	419.71	7.92	−.03	0.040394	−0.06	411.50	8.21	1.95	7.74
1937	7.61	427.32	7.61	0.00	0.041150	−0.03	419.15	8.17	1.91	7.65
1938	7.22	434.54	7.22	0.03	0.041898	0.00	426.72	7.82	1.80	7.57
1939	6.87	441.41	6.87	0.05	0.042636	0.03	434.18	7.23	1.64	7.46
1940	5.91	447.32	5.91	0.08	0.043365	0.05	441.56	5.76	1.29	7.38
1941	5.27	452.59	5.27	0.10	0.044084	0.08	448.83	3.76	.83	7.27
1942	5.22	457.81	5.22	0.12	0.044793	0.11	456.00	1.81	.39	7.17
1943	4.89	462.70	4.89	0.14	0.045492	0.14	463.07	−.37	−.08	7.07
1944	3.88	466.58	3.88	0.15	0.046182	0.17	470.05	−3.47	−.74	6.98
1945	4.67	471.25	4.67	0.17	0.046863	0.19	476.94	−5.69	−1.21	6.89
1946	5.21	476.46	5.21	0.19	0.047533	0.22	483.72	−7.26	−1.52	6.78
1947	5.73	482.19	5.73	0.22	0.048194	0.25	490.40	−8.21	−1.70	6.68
1948	6.15	488.34	6.15	0.24	0.048846	0.27	497.00	−8.66	−1.77	6.60
1949	6.48	494.82	6.48	0.27	0.049488	0.30	503.49	−8.67	−1.75	6.49
1950	6.32	501.14	6.32	0.29	0.050122	0.32	509.91	−8.77	−1.75	6.42
1951	6.67	507.81	6.67	0.32	0.050746	0.35	516.22	−8.41	−1.66	6.31
1952	6.24	514.05	6.24	0.34	0.051362	0.37	522.45	−8.40	−1.63	6.23
1953	6.37	520.42	6.37	0.37	0.051969	0.40	528.59	−8.17	−1.57	6.14
1954	6.00	526.42	6.00	0.39	0.052568	0.42	534.65	−8.23	−1.56	6.06
1955	6.60	533.02	6.60	0.42	0.053158	0.45	540.62	−7.60	−1.42	5.97
1956	6.31	539.33	6.31	0.44	0.053741	0.47	546.51	−7.18	−1.33	5.89
1957	6.12	545.45	6.12	0.47	0.054316	0.49	552.33	−6.88	−1.26	5.82
1958	5.88	551.33	5.88	0.49	0.054883	0.52	558.06	−6.73	−1.22	5.73
1959	6.08	557.41	6.08	0.51	0.055444	0.54	563.74	−6.33	−1.14	5.68
1960	5.86	563.27	5.86	0.54	0.055997	0.56	569.33	−6.06	−1.08	5.59
1961	5.48	568.75	5.48	0.56	0.056544	0.58	574.87	−6.12	−1.08	5.54
1962	4.89	573.64	4.89	0.58	0.057084	0.60	580.33	−6.69	−1.17	5.46
1963	4.90	578.54	4.90	0.60	0.057618	0.62	585.73	−7.19	−1.24	5.40
1964	5.03	583.57	5.03	0.62	0.058146	0.65	591.07	−7.50	−1.29	5.34
1965	5.05	588.62	5.05	0.64	0.058668	0.67	596.35	−7.73	−1.31	5.28
1966	4.97	593.59	4.97	0.66	0.059185	0.69	601.58	−7.99	−1.35	5.23
1967	5.14	598.73	5.14	0.68	0.059696	0.71	606.75	−8.02	−1.34	5.17
1968	4.92	603.65	4.92	0.70	0.060203	0.73	611.88	−8.23	−1.36	5.13
1969	5.01	608.66	5.01	0.72	0.060705	0.75	616.95	−8.29	−1.36	5.07
1970	4.61	613.27	4.61	0.73	0.061202	0.77	621.98	−8.71	−1.42	5.03
1971	4.63	617.90	4.63	0.75	0.061696	0.79	626.98	−9.08	−1.47	5.00
1972	4.53	622.43	4.53	0.77	0.062185	0.81	631.93	−9.50	−1.53	4.95
1973	4.59	627.02	4.59	0.79	0.062671	0.83	636.84	−9.82	−1.57	4.91
1974	4.20	631.22	4.20	0.80	0.063153	0.85	641.72	−10.50	−1.66	4.88
1975	4.21	635.43	4.21	0.82	0.063633	0.87	646.57	−11.14	−1.75	4.85
1976	4.07	639.50	4.07	0.84	0.064109	0.88	651.39	−11.89	−1.86	4.82
1977	4.46	643.96	4.46	0.85	0.064583	0.90	656.18	−12.22	−1.90	4.79
1978	4.65	648.61	4.65	0.87	0.065055	0.92	660.96	−12.35	−1.90	4.78
1979	4.67	653.28	4.67	0.89	0.065525	0.94	665.71	−12.43	−1.90	4.75
1980	4.66	657.94	4.66	0.91	0.065993	0.96	670.44	−12.50	−1.90	4.73
1981	4.87	662.81	4.87	0.93	0.066459	0.98	675.16	−12.35	−1.86	4.72
1982	5.19	668.00	5.19	0.95	0.066924	1.00	679.86	−11.86	−1.78	4.70
1983	5.01	673.01	5.01	0.97	0.067389	1.02	684.56	−11.55	−1.72	4.70
1984	5.56	678.57	5.56	0.99	0.067853	1.03	689.26	−10.69	−1.58	4.70
1985	6.43	685.00	6.43	1.02	0.068316	1.05	693.94	−8.94	−1.31	4.68
1986	6.54	691.54	6.54	1.04	0.068780	1.07	698.64	−7.10	−1.03	4.70
1987	7.11	698.65	7.11	1.07	0.069244	1.09	703.33	−4.68	−.67	4.69
1988	6.62	705.27	6.62	1.10	0.069708	1.11	708.02	−2.75	−.39	4.69
1989	6.29	711.56	6.29	1.12	0.070174	1.13	712.74	−1.18	−.17	4.72
1990	6.62	718.18	6.62	1.15	0.070640	1.15	717.45	.73	.10	4.71
1991	5.92	724.10	5.92	1.17	0.071109	1.16	722.19	1.91	.26	4.74
1992	7.09	731.19	7.09	1.20	0.071579	1.18	726.95	4.24	.58	4.76
1993	7.20	738.39	7.20	1.23	0.072052	1.20	731.73	6.66	.90	4.78
1994	6.86	745.25	6.86	1.26	0.072527	1.22	736.54	8.71	1.17	4.81
1995	6.82	752.07	6.82	1.28	0.073006	1.24	741.38	10.69	1.42	4.84
1996	6.34	758.41	6.34	1.31	0.073488	1.26	746.26	12.15	1.60	4.88
1997	6.00	764.41	6.00	1.33	0.073974	1.28	751.17	13.24	1.73	4.91
1998	5.90	770.31	5.90	1.35	0.074465	1.30	756.14	14.17	1.84	4.97
1999	5.22	775.53	5.22	1.38	0.074961	1.32	761.16	14.37	1.85	5.02
2000	5.35	780.88	5.35	1.40	0.075462	1.34	766.22	14.66	1.88	5.06
2001	4.95	785.83	4.95	1.42	0.075969	1.36	771.35	14.48	1.84	5.13
2002	5.14	790.97	5.14	1.44	0.076483	1.38	776.55	14.42	1.82	5.20
2003	5.80	796.77	5.80	1.46	0.077004	1.40	781.82	14.95	1.88	5.27
2004	5.58	802.35	5.58	1.48	0.077533	1.42	787.17	15.18	1.89	5.35
2005	5.20	807.55	5.20	1.50	0.078070	1.44	792.61	14.94	1.85	5.44
2006	5.20	812.75	5.20	1.52	0.078617	1.46	798.14	14.61	1.80	5.53
2007	4.80	817.55	4.80	1.54	0.079173	1.49	803.76	13.79	1.69	5.62
2008	4.70	822.25	4.70	1.56	0.079741	1.51	809.51	12.74	1.55	5.75
2009	5.00	827.25	5.00	1.58	0.080320	1.53	815.36	11.89	1.44	5.85
2010	5.02	832.27	5.02	1.60	0.080912	1.56	821.35	10.92	1.31	5.99

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