Social complexity, modernity and suicide: an assessment of Durkheim’s suicide from the perspective of a non-linear analysis of complex social systems

Condorelli, Rosalia

doi:10.1186/s40064-016-1799-z

SpringerPlus

Table 2 Observed and fitted data by the model S_t+1 = 1.065 × 0.0019830 × (1–0.0019830). R² = 0.96

From: Social complexity, modernity and suicide: an assessment of Durkheim’s suicide from the perspective of a non-linear analysis of complex social systems

a	b (1)	b (2)	b (3)	c	d	e	f	g (1)	g (2)	h
Years	Observed suicide growth rates s_t	Observed S_t	Observed suicide growth rates s_t (1876-1875. etc..)	Z obs.S_t (b and f)	Predicted S_t k=1.065	Z predicted S_t	Fitted St	Residues b(2)-f from 1875	% Residues (f/ b(2))*100	Fitted derivative or suicide growth rates S_t+1 -S_t
1873	3.43
1874	3.55	6.89
1875	3.21	10.19		−1.65	0.01983	−1.58	28.96	−18.77	−184.24
1876	3.54	13.73	3.54	−1.64	0.002108	−1.57	30.39	−16.66	−121.34	1.43
1877	3.90	17.63	3.90	−1.63	0.002240	−1.57	31.90	−14.27	−80.96	1.51
1878	3.95	21.58	3.95	−1.61	0.002380	−1.56	33.51	−11.93	−55.27	1.61
1879	4.14	25.72	4.14	−1.59	0.002529	−1.55	35.21	−9.49	−36.89	1.70
1880	4.27	29.99	4.27	−1.58	0.002686	−1.55	37.01	−7.02	−23.41	1.80
1881	4.51	34.50	4.51	−1.56	0.002853	−1.54	38.92	−4.42	−12.81	1.91
1882	4.63	39.13	4.63	−1.54	0.003030	−1.53	40.94	−1.81	−4.63	2.02
1883	4.82	43.95	4.82	−1.52	0.003217	−1.52	43.08	0.87	1.98	2.14
1884	4.49	48.44	4.49	−1.50	0.003416	−1.51	45.35	3.09	6.38	2.27
1885	4.74	53.18	4.74	−1.49	0.003625	−1.50	47.74	5.44	10.22	2.39
1886	3.96	57.14	3.96	−1.47	0.003847	−1.49	50.28	6.86	12.01	2.54
1887	4.65	61.79	4.65	−1.45	0.004081	−1.48	52.96	8.83	14.29	2.68
1888	5.07	66.86	5.07	−1.43	0.004329	−1.47	55.79	11.07	16.56	2.83
1889	4.63	71.49	4.63	−1.41	0.004590	−1.46	58.78	12.71	17.78	2.99
1890	5.20	76.69	5.20	−1.39	0.004866	−1.45	61.94	14.75	19.24	3.16
1891	5.30	81.99	5.30	−1.37	0.005157	−1.43	65.26	16.73	20.40	3.32
1892	5.35	87.34	5.35	−1.35	0.005464	−1.42	68.77	18.57	21.26	3.51
1893	5.36	92.70	5.36	−1.33	0.005787	−1.40	72.47	20.23	21.82	3.70
1894	5.31	98.01	5.31	−1.31	0.006128	−1.39	76.37	21.64	22.08	3.90
1895	5.72	103.73	5.72	−1.29	0.006486	−1.37	80.47	23.26	22.43	4.10
1896	6.07	109.80	6.07	−1.26	0.006863	−1.36	84.77	25.03	22.79	4.30
1897	5.71	115.51	5.71	−1.24	0.007259	−1.34	89.30	26.21	22.69	4.53
1898	6.17	121.68	6.17	−1.22	0.007674	−1.32	94.06	27.62	22.70	4.76
1899	6.00	127.68	6.00	−1.19	0.008110	−1.30	99.05	28.63	22.43	4.99
1900	6.05	133.73	6.05	−1.17	0.008568	−1.28	104.27	29.46	22.03	5.22
1901	5.92	139.65	5.92	−1.15	0.009046	−1.26	109.75	29.90	21.41	5.48
1902	5.85	145.50	5.85	−1.12	0.009547	−1.23	115.48	30.02	20.63	5.73
1903	5.56	151.06	5.56	−1.10	0.010071	−1.21	121.46	29.60	19.59	5.98
1904	6.18	157.24	6.18	−1.08	0.010617	−1.19	127.72	29.52	18.78	6.26
1905	6.77	164.01	6.77	−1.05	0.011187	−1.16	134.24	29.77	18.15	6.52
1906	6.54	170.55	6.54	−1.02	0.011781	−1.13	141.03	29.52	17.31	6.79
1907	6.84	177.39	6.84	−1.00	0.012399	−1.11	148.10	29.29	16.51	7.07
1908	7.47	184.86	7.47	−0.97	0.013041	−1.08	155.44	29.42	15.91	7.34
1909	8.16	193.02	8.16	−0.94	0.013708	−1.05	163.07	29.95	15.52	7.63
1910	7.83	200.85	7.83	−0.91	0.014399	−1.02	170.97	29.88	14.88	7.90
1911	7.43	208.28	7.43	−0.88	0.015114	−0.98	179.15	29.13	13.99	8.18
1912	8.02	216.30	8.02	−0.84	0.015853	−.95	187.60	28.70	13.27	8.45
1913	8.34	224.64	8.34	−0.81	0.016616	−.92	196.32	28.32	12.60	8.72
1914	8.42	233.06	8.42	−0.78	0.017402	−.88	205.31	27.75	11.90	8.99
1915	8.10	241.16	8.10	−0.75	0.018210	−.84	214.56	26.60	11.03	9.25
1916	6.64	247.80	6.64	−0.72	0.019041	−.81	224.06	23.74	9.58	9.50
1917	6.44	254.24	6.44	−0.70	0.019892	−.77	233.80	20.44	8.04	9.74
1918	7.10	261.34	7.10	−0.67	0.020764	−.73	243.77	17.57	6.72	9.97
1919	7.05	268.39	7.05	−0.64	0.021655	−.69	253.95	14.44	5.38	10.18
1920	7.11	275.50	7.11	−0.61	0.022563	−.65	264.34	11.16	4.05	10.39
1921	7.61	283.11	7.61	−0.58	0.023487	−.60	274.91	8.20	2.90	10.57
1922	7.91	291.02	7.91	−0.55	0.024426	−.56	285.66	5.36	1.84	10.75
1923	8.34	299.36	8.34	−0.52	0.025379	−.52	296.55	2.81	.94	10.89
1924	9.69	309.05	9.69	−0.48	0.026342	−.48	307.57	1.48	.48	11.02
1925	9.34	318.39	9.34	−0.44	0.027315	−.43	318.70	−.31	−.10	11.13
1926	9.76	328.15	9.76	−0.40	0.028296	−.39	329.92	−1.77	−.54	11.22
1927	10.52	338.67	10.52	−0.36	0.029283	−.34	341.20	−2.53	−.75	11.28
1928	9.67	348.34	9.67	−0.33	0.030273	−.30	352.53	−4.19	−1.20	11.33
1929	8.87	357.21	8.87	−0.29	0.031265	−.25	363.87	−6.66	−1.86	11.34
1930	9.55	366.76	9.55	−0.25	0.032256	−.21	375.21	−8.45	−2.30	11.34
1931	10.03	376.79	10.03	−0.21	0.033244	−.16	386.51	−9.72	−2.58	11.30
1932	9.76	386.55	9.76	−0.17	0.034228	−.12	397.77	−11.22	−2.90	11.26
1933	8.85	395.40	8.85	−0.14	0.035205	−.07	408.94	−13.54	−3.42	11.17
1934	8.72	404.12	8.72	−0.11	0.036174	−.03	420.02	−15.90	−3.93	11.08
1935	7.67	411.79	7.67	−0.08	0.037132	.01	430.97	−19.18	−4.66	10.95
1936	7.92	419.71	7.92	−0.04	0.038077	.06	441.78	−22.07	−5.26	10.81
1937	7.61	427.32	7.61	−0.01	0.039008	.10	452.43	−25.11	−5.88	10.65
1938	7.22	434.54	7.22	0.01	0.039923	.14	462.89	−28.35	−6.52	10.46
1939	6.87	441.41	6.87	0.04	0.040820	.18	473.16	−31.75	−7.19	10.27
1940	5.91	447.32	5.91	0.06	0.041699	.22	483.21	−35.89	−8.02	10.05
1941	5.27	452.59	5.27	0.08	0.042557	.26	493.03	−40.44	−8.93	9.82
1942	5.22	457.81	5.22	0.11	0.043395	.30	502.61	−44.80	−9.78	9.58
1943	4.89	462.70	4.89	0.12	0.044210	.33	511.93	−49.23	−10.64	9.32
1944	3.88	466.58	3.88	0.14	0.045002	.37	520.99	−54.41	−11.66	9.06
1945	4.67	471.25	4.67	0.16	0.045770	.40	529.78	−58.53	−12.42	8.79
1946	5.21	476.46	5.21	0.18	0.046514	.44	538.29	−61.83	−12.98	8.51
1947	5.73	482.19	5.73	0.20	0.047234	.47	546.51	−64.32	−13.34	8.22
1948	6.15	488.34	6.15	0.23	0.047928	.50	554.45	−66.11	−13.54	7.94
1949	6.48	494.82	6.48	0.25	0.048597	.53	562.10	−67.28	−13.60	7.65
1950	6.32	501.14	6.32	0.28	0.049240	.56	569.46	−68.32	−13.63	7.36
1951	6.67	507.81	6.67	0.30	0.049859	.59	576.54	−68.73	−13.53	7.08
1952	6.24	514.05	6.24	0.33	0.050452	.62	583.32	−69.27	−13.48	6.78
1953	6.37	520.42	6.37	0.35	0.051021	.64	589.82	−69.40	−13.34	6.50
1954	6.00	526.42	6.00	0.38	0.051565	.67	596.05	−69.63	−13.23	6.23
1955	6.60	533.02	6.60	0.40	0.052085	.69	601.99	−68.97	−12.94	5.94
1956	6.31	539.33	6.31	0.43	0.052581	.71	607.67	−68.34	−12.67	5.68
1957	6.12	545.45	6.12	0.45	0.053054	.73	613.08	−67.63	−12.40	5.41
1958	5.88	551.33	5.88	0.47	0.053505	.75	618.24	−66.91	−12.14	5.16
1959	6.08	557.41	6.08	0.50	0.053934	.77	623.15	−65.74	−11.79	4.91
1960	5.86	563.27	5.86	0.52	0.054342	.79	627.81	−64.54	−11.46	4.66
1961	5.48	568.75	5.48	0.54	0.054729	.81	632.24	−63.49	−11.16	4.43
1962	4.89	573.64	4.89	0.56	0.055096	.83	636.44	−62.80	−10.95	4.20
1963	4.90	578.54	4.90	0.58	0.055445	.84	640.43	−61.89	−10.70	3.99
1964	5.03	583.57	5.03	0.60	0.055775	.86	644.20	−60.63	−10.39	3.77
1965	5.05	588.62	5.05	0.62	0.056087	.87	647.77	−59.15	−10.05	3.57
1966	4.97	593.59	4.97	0.64	0.056383	.88	651.15	−57.56	−9.70	3.38
1967	5.14	598.73	5.14	0.66	0.056662	.90	654.34	−55.61	−9.29	3.19
1968	4.92	603.65	4.92	0.68	0.056926	.91	657.36	−53.71	−8.90	3.02
1969	5.01	608.66	5.01	0.70	0.057175	.92	660.21	−51.55	−8.47	2.85
1970	4.61	613.27	4.61	0.72	0.057409	.93	662.90	−49.63	−8.09	2.69
1971	4.63	617.90	4.63	0.73	0.057631	.94	665.43	−47.53	−7.69	2.53
1972	4.53	622.43	4.53	0.75	0.057840	.95	667.82	−45.39	−7.29	2.39
1973	4.59	627.02	4.59	0.77	0.058036	.96	670.07	−43.05	−6.87	2.25
1974	4.20	631.22	4.20	0.79	0.058222	.97	672.19	−40.97	−6.49	2.12
1975	4.21	635.43	4.21	0.80	0.058396	.97	674.18	−38.75	−6.10	1.99
1976	4.07	639.50	4.07	0.82	0.058560	.98	676.06	−36.56	−5.72	1.88
1977	4.46	643.96	4.46	0.84	0.058714	.99	677.82	−33.86	−5.26	1.76
1978	4.65	648.61	4.65	0.86	0.058859	1.00	679.48	−30.87	−4.76	1.66
1979	4.67	653.28	4.67	0.87	0.058995	1.00	681.04	−27.76	−4.25	1.56
1980	4.66	657.94	4.66	0.89	0.059123	1.01	682.50	−24.56	−3.73	1.46
1981	4.87	662.81	4.87	0.91	0.059244	1.01	683.87	−21.06	−3.18	1.37
1982	5.19	668.00	5.19	0.93	0.059357	1.02	685.17	−17.17	−2.57	1.30
1983	5.01	673.01	5.01	0.95	0.059463	1.02	686.38	−13.37	−1.99	1.21
1984	5.56	678.57	5.56	0.97	0.059562	1.03	687.52	−8.95	−1.32	1.14
1985	6.43	685.00	6.43	1.00	0.059655	1.03	688.58	−3.58	−.52	1.06
1986	6.54	691.54	6.54	1.02	0.059743	1.04	689.58	1.96	.28	1.00
1987	7.11	698.65	7.11	1.05	0.059825	1.04	690.52	8.13	1.16	.94
1988	6.62	705.27	6.62	1.08	0.059902	1.04	691.40	13.87	1.97	.88
1989	6.29	711.56	6.29	1.10	0.059974	1.05	692.23	19.33	2.72	.83
1990	6.62	718.18	6.62	1.13	0.060042	1.05	693.00	25.18	3.51	.77
1991	5.92	724.10	5.92	1.15	0.060105	1.05	693.73	30.37	4.19	.73
1992	7.09	731.19	7.09	1.18	0.060164	1.05	694.41	36.78	5.03	.68
1993	7.20	738.39	7.20	1.21	0.060220	1.06	695.04	43.35	5.87	.63
1994	6.86	745.25	6.86	1.24	0.060272	1.06	695.64	49.61	6.66	.60
1995	6.82	752.07	6.82	1.26	0.060321	1.06	696.20	55.87	7.43	.56
1996	6.34	758.41	6.34	1.29	0.060367	1.06	696.72	61.69	8.13	.52
1997	6.00	764.41	6.00	1.31	0.060410	1.07	697.21	67.20	8.79	.49
1998	5.90	770.31	5.90	1.33	0.060450	1.07	697.67	72.64	9.43	.46
1999	5.22	775.53	5.22	1.35	0.060487	1.07	698.10	77.43	9.98	.43
2000	5.35	780.88	5.35	1.38	0.060522	1.07	698.50	82.38	10.55	.40
2001	4.95	785.83	4.95	1.40	0.060555	1.07	698.88	86.95	11.07	.38
2002	5.14	790.97	5.14	1.42	0.060586	1.07	699.23	91.74	11.60	.35
2003	5.80	796.77	5.80	1.44	0.060615	1.07	699.56	97.21	12.20	.33
2004	5.58	802.35	5.58	1.46	0.060642	1.08	699.87	102.48	12.77	.31
2005	5.20	807.55	5.20	1.48	0.060667	1.08	700.16	107.39	13.30	.29
2006	5.20	812.75	5.20	1.50	0.060691	1.08	700.43	112.32	13.82	.27
2007	4.80	817.55	4.80	1.52	0.060713	1.08	700.68	116.87	14.30	.25
2008	4.70	822.25	4.70	1.54	0.060734	1.08	700.91	121.34	14.76	.23
2009	5.00	827.25	5.00	1.56	0.060753	1.08	701.14	126.11	15.24	.23
2010	5.02	832.27	5.02	1.58	0.060771	1.08	701.34	130.93	15.73	.20

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