Opportunities and challenges of indigenous biotic weather forecasting among the Borena herders of southern Ethiopia

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Table 4 Comparison of forecasting and percentage of mismatches with the reality

Year	Intestinal		Plant body language		Animal body language		Standardized precipitation anomalies		Counts of mach and mismatch in between different forecast
Year	No. of replied	%	No. of replied	%	No. of replied	%	SPA value	Drought level	Mach/mismatch	Mach/mismatch
1985	51	26	23	12	19	9.5	0.42	Normal	*	***
1986	134	67	169	85	23	12	1.59	Normal	**	****
1987	74	37	58	29	93	47	1.01	Normal	*	***
1988	42	21	25	13	86	43	1.14	normal	**	****
1989	51	26	36	18	103	52	1.22	Normal	**	****
1990	51	26	39	20	27	14	0.35	Normal	*	***
1991	124	62	150	75	164	82	−1.2	Moderate	**	***
1992	123	62	168	84	170	85	0.23	Normal	**	****
1993	65	33	37	19	32	16	0.08	Normal	*	***
1994	119	60	33	17	186	93	−1.7	Extreme	**	****
1995	72	36	22	11	18	9	−0.8	Mild	**	***
1996	109	55	45	23	166	83	−0.3	Mild	**	****
1997	81	41	41	21	29	15	1.37	Normal	*	***
1998	63	32	33	17	102	51	−0.6	Normal	**	****
1999	52	26	26	13	24	12	−1.6	Moderate	**	***
2000	38	19	22	11	77	39	−1	Moderate	**	****
2001	158	79	173	87	83	42	−0.5	Mild	**	****
2002	53	27	15	7.5	100	50	−0.7	Mild	**	****
2003	8	4	11	5.5	11	5.5	−0.2	Mild	**	***
2004	121	61	50	25	150	75	0	Normal	**	****
2005	32	16	178	89	137	69	0.44	Normal	*	****
2006	103	52	24	12	176	88	1.2	Normal	**	****
2007	4	2	91	46	122	61	0.1	Normal	**	****
2008	114	57	0	0	0	0	−0.8	Mild	**	****
2009	13	6.5	0	0	0	0	−1.2	Moderate	**	***
2010	164	82	102	51	148	74	1.94	Normal	**	***
2011	123	62	164	82	112	56	0.47	Normal	**	****
2012	29	15	113	57	29	15	−0.9	Moderate	**	****
Counts of mismatch									22	17
Percentage of mismatch									78.5	60.7