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Table 5 Forecasted regional presidential election results for 2016

From: A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap percentile estimates for predicting presidential election results in Ghana

Region

NDC

NPP

Other

Rejected votes

Main (%)

Run-off (%)

Main (%)

Run-off (%)

Main (%)

Main (%)

Run-off (%)

National

48.70

48.30

47.80

51.70

1.80

1.60

Western

51.62

53.27

43.81

46.73

2.21

2.36

Central

48.95

50.95

45.44

49.05

2.55

3.08

Greater Accra

50.64

52.44

45.73

47.56

1.73

1.90

Volta

82.80

83.77

13.91

16.23

1.33

1.96

Eastern

40.36

41.21

50.60

58.79

1.47

1.56

Ashanti

26.66

27.63

70.58

72.37

1.29

1.48

Brong Ahafo

48.35

49.38

48.58

50.62

1.56

1.51

Northern

57.50

60.00

37.84

40.00

2.14

2.52

Upper East

65.09

68.93

27.68

31.07

3.84

3.39

Upper West

63.35

63.46

30.49

35.54

2.82

3.35

  1. Source: author’s computation
  2. – Rejected votes are not factored into the computations of the probabilities