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Table 1 A matrix showing complex dynamic sustainability contexts a related to stratospheric ozone depletion issue

From: A framework to observe and evaluate the sustainability of human–natural systems in a complex dynamic context

'Background' Layers

 

Sustainability-linked Knowledgeb

Sustainability-linked Worldviewc

Resource limitation/availability

Well-being views

Policies, rules, regulations and governing practices

New creations, innovations and artifacts

'Sustainability-linked Knowledge' + 'Policies, rules, regulations and governing practices'd

'Sustainability-linked Knowledge' + 'Sustainability-liked worldviews' + 'New creations, innovations and artifacts'e

Economic growth/development

Sustainability/unsustainability understanding derived from, (i) knowledge of long-term impact on growth/development of the country related to costs of national health treatments and cost of eco-system restorations (ii) knowledge of impact on growth/development in the process of adopting alternative substances and related technologiesf (iii) knowledge of different types of stake-holders targeted for ODSs reduction (e.g., in developing countries the stakeholders vary as, importers of products or components where ODSs used, users of ODSs in other manufacturing, producers and users of ODSsg etc.)

Sustainability viewed as, (i) the continuous economic growth and development without setbacks (especially from industries' point of view) (ii) positive international trade (and geo-political) partnerships; Sustainablity-views influenced by predominant economic (and related legal and political) views (e.g., those that emphasize the legal rights of citizens [both as global and local citizens] and manufacturers).

Unsustainability issue identified as, (i) the limitation of affordable substitutes to ODSs (CFC-123, CFC-124, HCFCs in early stages and Hydrofluorocarbons [HFCs], Perfluorocarbons [PFCs] and Sulfurhexafluorides [SF6] etc later on)h (ii) the limitation in applicability of the potential substitutes (e.g., application of compounds in refrigeration, air conditioning, aerosol applications, fire suppression, foam blowing, sterilants, and solvents) that create additional cost of replacement in appliances (iii) the limitation of data and knowledgei of cost-effective ODS-substitutes (iv) the limitations in technologiesj to produce cost-effective ODS-substitutes (v) the limitation of domestic technologies, networks etc to absorb the economic benefits of trade partnerships.

Unsustainability issues identified as disruption of well-being, where well-being is viewed as, (i) the ability to maintain desirable (material) standards of living (that may involve high ODSs emission, such as that of supersonic transport) (ii) the continuous improvement in the living standards (e.g., continuously reducing economic risks related to replacement of ODSs, health research and treatments)k (iii) the ability to satisfy same functions, and use same facilities with minimum change to consumption patterns (that involve ODSs and the services and industries that use ODSs such as aerosols, refrigerants etc) to reduce economic impact (iv) the ability to maintain flexibility and adaptability in economic decisions and activities.

Solutions with policies and laws related to, (i) agreements, adaptation schemes and change mechanisms for new substances (e.g., first international discussions under United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP] and World Meteorological Organization [WMO] that led to ‘International Plan of Action’ in 1977; agreements in Vienna convention [1985] by major CFC producers to regulate the compound; commitments with Montreal protocol [1987] to ban the import of ODSs and the discouragement of technologies used for ODSs manufacturing for nonparties (ii) establishing Multilateral Fund [1990] for the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, especially to assist developing countriesl during the transition process) (iii) the establishment of research networks for global, regional, national and sector-level socio-economic data accumulation.m (iv) each country's domestic adjustments to encourage major ODSs producers and small-enterprises for the shift through effective trade mechanisms.n

Solutions supported by, (i) new evaluator models (e.g., Chemistry-Climate Models [CCM] and related General Circulation Models [GCM]o) (ii) new technologies that offset additional costs of alternative substances to ODSs (e.g. low cost methods of producing HFC as a refrigerant) (iii) innovative technology transfer mechanisms for adaptation of new substances (e.g., government and industrial partnerships that gave confidence to other manufacturers and part-suppliers to invest on the transition process; industrial leadership pledges for developing countriesp) (iv) innovative market mechanisms to encourage the shift to substitutes, and to eliminate black markets around ODSs and ODS technologies disposal (e.g., the establishment of the grace period, where developing countries could voluntarily reduce ODSs).

Solutions supported by, (i) reevaluating and revising the protocol based on new scientific data and market information [e.g., London Amendments of 1990, the Copenhagen Amendments of 1992, and the Montreal Adjustments of 1997 and 2007, with accelerated phase-out targets, new ODSs and supportive implementation mechanisms] (ii) adopting mechanisms such as trade permits, new global reclaim and recycle mechanisms to reduce the cost of transition while ensuring proper destruction of ODSs.

Sustainability achieved through, (i) continuation to look for innovative solutions supported by long-term investments (e.g., research on Geo-Engineering Solutions as solar radiation-management [SRM], where SRM aims to reduce solar wave radiation before it reaches earth via methods such as injecting aerosols to atmosphere to reflect sunlight (ii) continuation of international partnerships to generate cost-effective alternative solutions (e.g., produce and use more ozone friendly as well as energy efficient technologies and appliances that have added benefits to both producers and consumers).q

Health and ecological conditions depletion

Sustainability/unsustainability understanding derived from, (i) knowledge of environmental related health impact of the issue (e.g., ecological imbalance, cancer by UV-B) (ii) knowledge of ODSs (e.g., chemistry of substances and reactions) (iii) knowledge of ozone depletion chemistry, stratosphere conditions and cycle patterns (e.g., polar stratospheric clouds [PSCs], dynamical structure of polar winter and spring stratosphere, stratosphere and troposphere coupling) (iv) knowledge of alternative substances and technologies with their added environmental benefits (v) nonknowledge and nesciences on future conditions (e.g., future discoveries such as, the additional UV-B impacts on human health, ODS-substitutes' impact on phenomena such as global warming, the health impact distribution among countries, changes to the expected trends due to unanticipated causesr etc).

Sustainability viewed in terms of importance/non-importance of, (i) sustained human health (ii) eco-system well-being, and the perceived degree of autonomy and responsibility for them; Sustainability-linked views supported by world-centric and group- (nations, locality) centric ideas on the environmental (and related health) impact, and by the related sense of responsibility; Sustainability-liked views that influence the extent of comfort with health and ecological risks (risk in the face of dread, familiarity and extent of exposure).s

Unsustainability issues identified as, (i) the limitation of known substitutes for ODSst (ii) the limitations in applicability of new substitutes in existing appliances and technologies (iii) the limitations in available technologies to reduce ODS emissions (e.g., difficulties faced in producing non-harmful CFC varieties by CFC manufacturers) (iv) the limitations in available scientific data to verify the extent of the health and ecological impact (e.g., the lack of evidence of ozone depletion and specific causes, and other scientific uncertainties related to ODS-substitutes).

Unsustainability issues identified as disruption of well-being, where well-being is viewed as, (i) the ability to maintain desirable (health and eco-system related) living standards (ii) positive conditions to support good human health and eco-system balance (e.g., reduced level of UV-B radiation through reduced ozone depletion rate) (iii) the continuous improvement of the (health and eco-system related) living standards (e.g., continuous reduction of cancer risks and negative effects on aquatic biochemical cyclesu).

Solution with policies and laws related to, (i) ODSs emission reduction and complete elimination mechanisms (supported mainly by the Montreal Protocol) (ii) global, regional, national research network establishment for new health and ecological related data accumulation (e.g., commitments for assessments of national limits set for ODSs production and consumption in every four years; national policies that support research on UV-B effect on health, and on terrestrial and aquatic eco-systems; international policy initiatives such as World Plan of Action for the Ozone Layer [1977] by United Nations Environment Program [UNEP]).

Solutions supported by, (i) technologies to produce and utilize alternative substances with improved health and ecological benefits (e.g., producing HCFC as an alternative for CFC (especially producing HCFC-225 between 1990 and 1994, to replace CFC-113)v (ii) efficient technology transfer mechanisms for efficient adaptation of new substances (e.g., partnerships between government supported environmental agencies [e.g., Environmental Protection Agency-EPA] and major industries in assessing and adapting new technologies, that accelerated the substitution process) (iii) innovative trade, policy mechanisms to encourage the shift to substitutes and further research.

Solutions supported by reevaluating and revising the protocol based on new scientific information (e.g., London Amendments of 1990, the Copenhagen Amendments of 1992, and the Montreal Adjustments of 1997 and 2007 that introduced new ODSs and accelerated the phase-out targets, such as the accelerated phase-out plan for HCFCs and methylbromide considering their underestimated rate of threat to ozone layer and their contribution to global-warming as a green house gas; supportive assessments made in 1989, 1991 and 1994 with panels representing science, economy and technology).

Sustainability achieved through, (i) continuously look for innovative solutions to reduce health and ecological impact (e.g., research on Geo-Engineering Solutions as solar radiation-management [SRM], where SRM aims to reduce solar wave radiation before it reaches earth via methods such as injecting aerosols to atmosphere to reflect sunlight (ii) continuation of international partnerships to reduce ODSs (iii) improvements of recycle and reclaiming technologies and mechanisms (iv) treating environmental issues not as isolated issues, but interrelated issues of global human–natural system (e.g., produce and use more ozone friendly as well as energy efficient technologies and appliances).w

  1. aThese contexts as described elsewhere, are observation metastructures in the evaluation process.
  2. b,cTo maintain presentation simplicity, only the key dimensions are shown as the column titles. However, it is important to note that in addition to the shown explicit roles, the two dimensions of sustainability-linked knowledge and sustainability-linked worldview also play background roles to other dimensions in the process of defining sustainability contexts.
  3. d,eSimilarly, other dimension combinations also would enable us to see more contexts by supporting a reflexive and iterative understanding process; we show only two significant examples.
  4. fE.g., new compounds and related technologies in refrigeration, air conditioning, aerosol applications, fire suppression, foam blowing, sterilants, and solvents.
  5. gAs specified by Munasinghe and King (1991); adopted from Taddonio et al. (2012).
  6. hIn the early stage, the chemical industry was working to produce new chemicals such as CFC-123, and CFC-134; however, these developments were controlled by the chemistry and the market (Morrisette 1989). The limitations of the available ODS-substitutes made them essential resources in this issue.
  7. i,jJust as ODS-substitutes, the related knowledge, and the technologies to produce them also are considered as resources.
  8. kBeyond the distinctive catastrophic nature, the health risks also generate long-term economic impacts for a country.
  9. lDeveloping countries that consume less than 0.3 kilograms of ODSs per person per year are known as ‘Article 5 countries’.
  10. mE.g., International Council of Scientific Union (ICSU), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
  11. nE.g., The domestic policies adopted by the European Commission (EC) to allow the use of HCFC as a solvent and foam production supplement, but ban for the use in some types of refrigeration and air-conditioning services; and later to ban all use and imports of products that use HCFC. This stepwise approach is believed to have encouraged the small and medium scale companies to be more innovative in developing alternatives, and to transfer to HCFC-free technologies (Taddonio et al. 2012). Another such mechanism is the tradable permits that were adopted by many countries, which aimed for flexibility during the transition process, while at the same time ensuring the phase-out schedules are met and the ODSs are destroyed effectively.
  12. oOf World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) (Eyring et al. 2005; Perlwitz et al. 2008).
  13. pE.g., Pledge by automotive community to (i) recycle (ii) phase-out CFC-12 (in 1988 and 1990); Voluntary phase-out of CFC foam in food packaging; Pledge by Japanese enterprises to phase-out ODSs use at their facilities in developing countries within one year of the phase-out at domestic facilities (in 1990) (Taddonio et al. 2012).
  14. q,wSuch change in direction of the nature of envisioned solutions is heavily influenced by changed worldviews, which may have influenced by factors such as, increased acceptance of irreversibility of harm already occurred, acceptance of the close connection of ozone depletion issue and global warming issue (such as the man-made nature, and the possible dynamic interrelation [Andersen and Sarma 2012]), the increased trust towards the functionality of global protection initiatives, the increased dependency upon technology based solutions, and so on. Further, they require views that support nonknowledge-based actions, which may have become more acceptable with time.
  15. rSuch as the effect on ozone concentration by stratospheric sulfate particles from volcanic eruptions (e.g. Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991), varying temperature in stratosphere (due to winter time polar vortex circulation and solar cycle variations), atmospheric dynamics (which is heavily influenced by increased carbon dioxide emissions), abundance of trace gases such as water vapor, methane and N2O (atmospheric N2O has increased in recent times due to high fertilizer use), and so on (Weatherhead and Andersen 2006). These dynamic factors would continue to exert uncertainty for the rate of recovery of ozone and its future stabilizing concentration.
  16. sFactors that affect the risk perception as categorized by Slovic (1987); adopted from Morrisette (1989).
  17. tWith limited scientific knowledge of exact cause of the ozone layer depletion, only few substitutes were identified in the beginning.
  18. uThe disruption to aquatic biochemical cycle is found to reduce the production of phytoplankton, and to lower the reproductive capacity of aquatic life such as fish, shrimp and crabs (Worrest and Häder 1989).
  19. vResistance from key producers to halt CFCs without adjustable alternatives had been one of the key bottlenecks in implementing the Montreal Protocol. Finding alternatives for CFCs—especially for the widely used ones—is believed to have accelerated the process (Taddonio et al. 2012).
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