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Table 6 BDS test statistics

From: Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India

Sample period

AR (ρ)

m = 2, ϵ = 0.75s

m = 4, ϵ = 1.0s

m = 8, ϵ =1.25S

m = 10, ϵ = 1.50s

Sensex

Full sample

9

17.65* (0.000)

27.88* (0.000)

42.94*(0.000)

44.24* (0.000)

Jan 1991 – Dec 1993

7

3.74* (0.000)

4.42*(0.000)

6.33*(0.000)

7.40*(0.000)

Jan 1994 - Dec 1996

2

5.76* (0.000)

8.24* (0.000)

11.66* (0.000)

12.21*(0.000)

Jan 1997 – Dec 1999

1

3.00* (0.002)

4.52* (0.000)

6.30*(0.000)

6.95* (0.000)

Jan 2000 – Dec 2002

2

8.46*(0.000)

13.08*(0.000)

18.11*(0.000)

19.20*(0.000)

Jan 2003 – Dec 2005

2

3.85* (0.000)

5.60* (0.000)

9.01*(0.000)

9.77* (0.000)

Jan 2006 – Dec 2008

2

9.08* (0.000)

14.26*(0.000)

24.40*(0.000)

23.56*(0.000)

Jan 2009 – Dec - 2011

1

3.85* (0.000)

7.40*(0.000)

12.98* (0.000)

14.11* (0.000)

Jan 2012 – Mar 2013

0

-0.71* (0.474)

0.306* (0.759)

1.893* (0.058)

2.288* (0.022)

Nifty

Full sample

11

15.15* (0.000)

23.89 (0.000)

35.94 (0.000)

37.65 (0.000)

Jan 1994 - Dec 1996

2

5.322* (0.000)

8.534* (0.000)

11.33* (0.000)

11.73* (0.000)

Jan 1997 – Dec 1999

0

2.149* (0.031)

4.081* (0.000)

5.351* (0.000)

5.808* (0.000)

Jan 2000 – Dec 2002

2

8.08* (0.000)

12.14* (0.000)

15.28* (0.000)

15.59* (0.000)

Jan 2003 – Dec 2005

2

4.67* (0.000)

6.43* (0.000)

9.68* (0.000)

10.89* (0.000)

Jan 2006 – Dec 2008

2

8.63* (0.000)

13.89* (0.000)

23.71* (0.000)

22.49* (0.000)

Jan 2009 – Dec - 2011

2

3.73* (0.000)

6.61* (0.000)

12.02* (0.000)

12.97* (0.000)

Jan 2012 – Mar 2013

0

-1.05 (0.292)

0.288 (0.772)

1.732 (0.083)

2.905 (0.004)

  1. Here, ‘m’ and ‘ϵ’ denote the embedding dimension and distance, respectively and ‘ϵ’ equal to various multiples (0.75, 1, 1.25 and 1.5) of standard deviation (scp of the data. The value in the first row of each cell is a BDS test statistic followed by the corresponding p-value in parentheses. The asymptotic null distribution of test statistics is N (0.1). Asterisked values indicate 1% level of significance.