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Table 3 Variance ratio test statistics

From: Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India

Sample periods

Lo-MacKinlay variance ratios for investment horizons (q)

Chow and Denning statistic

 

2

4

8

16

 

Sensex

Full sample

1.08*

1.12*

1.12***

1.19**

3.767**

 

(3.767)

(2.878)

(1.868)

(2.071)

 

Jan 1991 – Dec 1993

1.11

1.20

1.26

1.42

1.066

 

(1.066)

(1.083)

(0.910)

(1.001)

 

Jan 1994 - Dec 1996

1.21

1.27

1.32

1.21

0.772

 

(0.772)

(0.567)

(0.424)

(0.196)

 

Jan 1997 – Dec 1999

1.04

1.08

1.03***

1.06

0.291

 

(0.291)

(0.292)

(0.082)

(0.094)

 

Jan 2000 – Dec 2002

1.06

1.09

1.10

1.11

0.391

 

(0.391)

(0.298)

(0.211)

(0.163)

 

Jan 2003 – Dec 2005

1.08

1.02

1.08

1.15

0.271

 

(0.273)

(0.052)

(0.104)

(0.129)

 

Jan 2006 – Dec 2008

1.07

1.07

0.985

1.05

0.653

 

(0.653)

(0.346)

(-0.045)

(0.124)

 

Jan 2009 – Dec 2011

1.06

1.06

1.01

1.09

0.319

 

(0.319)

(0.172)

(0.022)

(0.117)

 

Jan 2012 – Mar 2013

0.98

1.06

1.10

1.10

0.012

 

(-0.01)

(0.023)

(0.024)

(0.018)

 

Nifty

Full sample

1.07*

1.08**

1.06

1.10

3.180*

 

(3.180)

*(1.896)

(1.071)

(1.121)

 

Jan 1994 - Dec 1996

1.23

1.31

1.40

1.25

1.055

 

(1.055)

(0.789)

(0.673)

(0.304)

 

Jan 1997 – Dec 1999

1.00

0.99

0.96

0.96

0.003

 

(0.003)

(-0.005)

(-0.107)

(-0.068)

 

Jan 2000 – Dec 2002

1.09

1.08

1.11

1.15

0.602

 

(0.602)

(0.284)

(0.260)

(0.252)

 

Jan 2003 – Dec 2005

1.11

1.06

1.12

1.16

0.587

 

(0.586)

(0.183)

(0.218)

(0.203)

 

Jan 2006 – Dec 2008

1.06

1.06

0.99

1.07

 
 

(0.677)

(0.395)

(-0.015)

(0.216)

0.677

Jan 2009 – Dec - 2011

1.04

1.05

1.00*

1.07

0.288

 

(0.276)

(0.172)

(0.002)

(0.112)

 

Jan 2012 – Mar 2013

0.97

1.06*

1.10**

1.12**

0.021

 

(-0.021)

*(0.032)

(0.035)

(0.029)

 
  1. Note: The Lo-MacKinlay variance ratios VR (q) are reported in the main rows and variance test [Z * (q)] statistics are given in parentheses. Under the null of random walk, the variance ratio value is expected to equal one. Chow-Denning heteroscedastic statistics are presented in the last column and the critical value is 2.49. *, ** and *** denote significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.