Net present value approaches for drug discovery

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Table 1 The probability of finding a drug in year 1–5 according to model 1 and 3

		Cash-flow to discovery/year (million $)
	n	0,5	1	3
Model 1	1	0,0350	0,0700	0,2100
	2	0,0338	0,0651	0,1659
	3	0,0326	0,0605	0,1311
	4	0,0315	0,0563	0,1035
	5	0,0304	0,0524	0,0818
Model 3	All	0,0376	0,0809	0,3365

A probability rate P of 7 10^-8 compounds/$ and a constant cash-flow to the discovery activities of $0.5 m, $1 m and $3 m per year has been used. In model 3, the probability weighted amount of drugs that may be found.